Nitish Kumar’s core voter base for decades, why Kushwaha support for NDA is wavering

The contest underlines the trouble that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) is facing as he tries to keep intact his hold over the 7% Luv-Kush votes — the Kurmi and Koeri (Kushwaha) communities are called Luv-Kush in Bihar. Since the mid-1990s, Nitish has meticulously nurtured this constituency — according to last year’s caste survey, it comprises 4.21% of Bihar’s population — to counter the RJD’s Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) vote bank.

Ujiarpur is one of the most populous OBC Kushwaha constituencies with about 2.75 lakh Kushwaha voters. Of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, 15 have between 1.5 to 3 lakh Kushwaha voters who can decide the fate of candidates. These constituencies are Ujiarpur, Samastipur, Karakat, Aurangabad, Nawada, Nalanda, East Champaran, West Champaran, Khagaria, Valmiki Nagar, Arrah, Sitamarhi, Purnia, Jamui, and Patna Saheb.

Among the constituencies that vote fifth phase onwards are Sitamarhi, Valmiki Nagar, East Champaran, West Champaran, Karakat, Nalanda, Arrah, and Patna Saheb.

While the Kurmi vote (about 3%) looks largely intact in favour of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), cracks have appeared in the Kushwaha constituency, with some shifting towards the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. First, the Opposition stole a march over the JD(U) by fielding seven Kushwaha candidates: Shravan Kushwaha in Nawada, Abhay Kushwaha in Aurangabad, and Alok Kumar Mehta in Ujiarpur, all from the RJD; Anshul Avijit of the Congress in Patna Saheb; Rajaram Singh of the CPI(ML) in Karakat; CPI(M)’s Khagaria candidate Sanjay Kumar; and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) candidate Rajesh Kushwaha in East Champaran. In comparison, the JD(U) has fielded only two Kushwahas — Santosh Kumar in Purnia and Sunil Kumar in Valmiki Nagar — and the BJP none.

What Kushwaha voters are saying

With Nitish Kumar’s stature taking a hit over his frequent about-turns and Deputy CM Samrat Choudhary and Upendra Kushwaha of the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party failing to establish themselves as pan-Bihar Kushwaha leaders, local factors and the Mahagathbandhan’s choice of candidates have played a part in fracturing the community’s support for the JD(U) and NDA. This became apparent as The Indian Express travelled to Ujiarpur, Samastipur, Khagaria, and Jamui.

In Ujiarpur’s Gawpur village, farmer Ajay Kumar said, “While the 2019 elections had the Pulwama factor, this election is dominated by local factors. Alok Kumar Mehta is a local leader and is very soft-spoken and accessible. He is from our community. There is no Modi factor for us …”

Ujiarpur resident Navin Singh, also a farmer, said, “While the RJD gave tickets to three Kushwahas, BJP did not give a ticket to any. In Karakat, Upendra Kushwaha is facing BJP rebel and Bhojpuri singer Pawan Singh. Why can’t Amit Shah call Singh to withdraw from the race?”

The RJD’s jobs pitch and Nitish’s dented image were also cited by some as reasons for supporting the Opposition. “We are lantern (RJD symbol) voters … we liked Nitish Kumar but he is now a pale shadow of himself. Neither Samrat nor Upendra could become our leader,” said Santosh Kumar, who grows vegetables.

However, not all Kushwahas are voicing resentment. In the Kushwaha area of Vidyapati Nagar, some said they would stick with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “Most of the youth and women are still with Modi despite the caste factor being one of the dominant themes of this election,” said Pankaj Kumar, a Bihar Jeevika worker.

In Samastipur, which has the most Kushwaha voters in the state (about 3.5 lakh), fruit-seller Bhagwan Kushwaha said, “Though most of us will support the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), more than 30% per cent votes could still go to the Congress. Samrat Choudhary should have come to us. Since we feel neglected, we will vote for whoever we want.”

Kushwaha votes

A BJP leader said the Mahagathbandhan got it right by fielding seven Kushwaha candidates and that the contests in Nawada and Aurangabad, which voted in the first phase on April 19, would be close affairs. “Our Nawada candidate Vivek Thakur cannot be sure of his victory as Shravan Kushwaha seems to have got overwhelming support from his community. Our Aurangabad candidate Sushil Kumar Singh also faced a tough battle against Abhay Kushwaha in Aurangabad. We are still not sure if we are winning these two seats,” said the BJP functionary.

The contest between the CPI (M)’s Sanjay Kumar and the LJP’s Rajesh Verma is also expected to be a close one, according to locals. “While it is generally perceived that Yadavs and Kushwahas are warring castes and generally do not vote together, the aggression of Yadavs has subdued in this election and Yadav and Kushwaha are coming together,” said Satish Kumar, a private schoolteacher and Kushwaha voter in the constituency.

Some of the Kushwaha resentment with the NDA is visible in Jamui too, a seat represented the last two times by LJP (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan. Though Samrat Choudhary’s home turf Tarapur is part of the constituency, some Kushwahas had complaints about him.

“Samrat Choudhary rose in importance because he is a Kushwaha leader with the potential to fill the Luv-Kush leadership vacuum that is appearing as Nitish Kumar moves towards the end of his political career. But he has hardly travelled across the state, especially Kushwaha-dominated regions,” said retired teacher Rakesh Kushwaha who lives in a village near Tarapur.