Decode Politics | Key takeaways from ‘historic’ Tripura accord: booster for BJP, breakthrough for TIPRA Motha

Pradyot is scheduled to return to Tripura Sunday, when he would go to Hatai Kotor to formally end his hunger strike.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah being greeted by TIPRA Motha supremo Pradyot Debbarma during the signing of agreement between TIPRA Motha and the governments of Tripura and India, in New Delhi (PTI)

The tripartite accord comes about a year after Union Home Minister Amit Shah met Pradyot in Agartala. The BJP’s North-east coordinator Sambit Patra had then told media that Shah had given instructions for the appointment of an interlocutor who would discuss the Motha’s demands, involving other stakeholders too.

The accord

The tripartite pact seeks to work out and implement an “honourable solution” to the grievances of the tribal population of Tripura.

The agreement notes that a series of meetings were recently held with The Indigenous Progressive Regional Alliance (TIPRA), popularly known as TIPRA Motha, and other stakeholders, based on which the Centre, the Tripura government and the TIPRA have agreed to “amicably resolve” all issues of the indigenous people of Tripura relating to their history, land rights, political rights, economic development, identity, culture, language etc.

“It was agreed to constitute a Joint Working Group/Committee to work out and implement the mutually agreed points on all the above mentioned issues in a time-bound manner to ensure an honourable solution. In order to maintain a conducive atmosphere for implementation of this Agreement, all stakeholders shall refrain from resorting to any form of agitation/protest during this period, starting from the day of signing”.

The accord signing ceremony was held in New Delhi in the presence of Amit Shah, Tripura Chief Minister Manik Saha and Pradyot Kishore apart from other senior BJP and TIPRA leaders, including ex-Tripura CM Biplab Deb, Leader of Opposition Animesh Debbarma, N-E advisor for Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) AK Mishra, and other Central and state officials.

Home Minister’s pitch

Calling it a “historic day”, Amit Shah said, “With this agreement, we have honoured history, corrected mistakes and accepted today’s reality, we have put together these three aspects and worked to see towards future. Nobody can change the history but we can learn from mistakes of it and go ahead keeping sight of the realities.”

Shah’s comments seemed to be an oblique reference to concerns over illegal immigration from Bangladesh and allegations of deprivation meted out to tribals in Tripura – that tribals became a “minority” in their own state due to demographic shift after non-tribals settled in large numbers in the state prior to the 1971 Bangladesh liberation war.

“I’m glad that TIPRA Motha, all tribal parties and all organisations have played a very constructive role for this. The BJP-led government of Tripura has worked for it from the outset. Former Tripura CM Biplab Deb has worked for it, incumbent CM Manik Saha has studied it in detail and helped positively in reaching it to the conclusion. I am confident that Tripura will join Modi ji’s dream of ‘Viksit Bharat’ with both its participation and share. When we achieve ‘Viksit Bharat’, Tripura will go ahead along with the rest of the country as ‘Viksit Tripura,” Shah said.

Citing several accords and agreements signed by the Central government for peace and stability in North-east India, Shah also said that his ministry has worked to achieve a “terrorism-free, dispute-free, violence-free” N-E under PM Modi’s leadership, adding that nearly 10,000 ultras have laid down arms in the region in last few years and returned to the mainstream.

Political implications

Tribal politics has always been crucial in Tripura’s history. Tribals constitute one-third of 37 lakh population of the state, a majority of whom live in the TIPRA-led Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) region.

As 20 out of 60 Assembly constituencies are reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs), governments have historically been formed in the state by parties whom the tribals support. One of the state’s two Lok Sabha seats is also ST-reserved.

In 2018, the Centre had constituted the MHA High Power Modality Committee to study socio-economic, political, cultural and linguistic problems of tribals in Tripura, after the IPFT, which is now the BJP’s alliance partner, blocked the national highway for days and crippled normal life in the state. The IPFT’s demands are however yet to be fulfilled.

The Saturday’s accord has promptly checked Pradyot’s fast-unto-death agitation, which could also have become a long-drawn affair, spiralling out of control.

Considering Pradyot’s popularity among the tribals, the accord would help the BJP in reaching out to the community in the state.

As thousands of jubilant tribals were seen celebrating at Pradyot’s protest venue after the accord was signed, observers feel it might appease tribals for now at a crucial stage on the eve of the parliamentary elections.

The accord does not mandate anything radical to be granted to tribals or the TIPRA immediately. The Joint Working Group/Committee would work out and implement the mutually agreed points on a range of tribal issues in a “time-bound manner”, which has been kept open-ended. At the same time, it has extracted a significant concession from all the stakeholders by stipulating that they will refrain from resorting to any form of stir during this period.

BJP supremacy

The signing of the accord has given a shot in the arm to the BJP in its bid to maintain its political and electoral dominance in the state.

The signing of the accord may not show any immediate result, but it has the potential to influence the tribal voters, a senior BJP leader said.

“The Opposition parties would have to forfeit their deposits in both the Lok Sabha seats – Tripura West and Tripura East – as the BJP is expected to gain a huge goodwill with this accord,” said the leader.

“It also gives the BJP an image of a party that keeps its promises… The Opposition has lost all its ammunition against the party in the elections,” the leader said.

“This (accord) is for the economic and cultural development of the tribal people… It also shows how the BJP is trying to give respect and dignity to the people in the region. Today, the Union Home Minister sat with them while the deal was signed. They can see it in contrast with their negligence by the Communists for long,” Biplab Deb told The Indian Express.

Sources said the TIPRA might even consider joining the BJP-led NDA in due course.

TIPRA Motha’s gains

In light of the Pradyot’s radical demand for a separate statehood for Tripura’s tribals, observers say the accord seems to be “underwhelming” for the TIPRA.

Echoing the BJP’s reaction, the TIPRA said the accord was “historic”. It however added that the party would have to work harder to resolve tribals’ concerns.

However, Pradyot did manage to get a written assurance from the Central government to consider his party’s demands for rights of tribals related to their identity, language, culture and land while ensuing their political and economic development.

Shortly after the accord was signed, Pradyot took to social media to say, “Yes we have signed a Historical accord and we can celebrate but not too much! If we celebrate and forget what has to be done within a time frame… We have to work even harder and be disciplined as leaders and as a community. We have to implement our land rights, funding pattern, language (script) issue, political representation and also correct our historical and cultural pride.”

(With inputs from Liz Mathew, New Delhi)