In ST-reserved seats in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Congress and allies have been gaining ground

Maharashtra

At 1.05 crore, STs account for nearly 10% of Maharashtra’s population as per the 2011 Census. There are at least 1 lakh tribals in 21 of the state’s 36 districts. The largest tribal communities are the Bhils, Gonds, Kolis, and Varlis who together number almost 65 lakh, besides just under 5 lakh people from three Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PVTGs).

In total, there are 38 Assembly seats where STs account for at least 20% of the population.

Maharashtra: Seats won and vote shares in ST seats.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the NDA managed to retain all four ST-reserved parliamentary seats, with the BJP winning three and the Sena one. However, in that year’s Assembly polls, the BJP’s tally fell to eight ST seats (from 11 in 2014) while the Sena won three. The NCP won six tribal seats and its ally Congress bagged four. Smaller parties and Independents won the remaining four constituencies.

In terms of vote shares in the tribal seats, the BJP fell marginally from 27.92% in 2014 to 26.92% while the Congress fell from 21.9% to 18.11%. The NCP and the Shiv Sena too dropped to 15.71% (from 18.65%) and 12.55% (from 13.49%), respectively.

The state underwent a major political realignment after this as the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and the Mahayuti alliance emerged, with three parties each in both camps. In this year’s Lok Sabha polls, the BJP suffered a major reversal in the tribal seats, falling to just one, while the Congress picked up two seats and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar) won one.

Breaking these results down to the Assembly-segment level shows that while the BJP led in nine ST-reserved segments, the MVA parties led in 16 (the Congress in nine, the Shiv Sena (UBT) in four, and the NCP (SP) in two. An Independent led in one segment.

The MVA will draw confidence from this performance while the ruling Mahayuti bloc that is looking to regain its ground among Adivasis has a problem on its hands as the Dhangar community has revived its demand for ST status, triggering opposition from ST communities.

Jharkhand

Tribals, who account for 26% of Jharkhand’s population according to the 2011 Census, number at least a lakh in 21 of the state’s 24 districts, illustrating their electoral importance. The most populous communities are the Santhals, who alone number 27.55 lakh, followed by Oraons (17.17 lakh) and the Mundas (12.29 lakh). The other prominent ST communities are the Hos, Kharwars, Lohras, and Bhumjis.

There are 43 Assembly seats where tribals make up at least 20% of the population and in as many as 22 seats they make up more than half the population.

Jharkhand: Seats won and vote shares in ST seats.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won three tribal seats like five years earlier, while the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and the Congress won one each. In the Assembly polls held months later, the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance came to power after the JMM dominated the ST-reserved seats, winning 19 of the 28. It was followed by the Congress that won six, the BJP whose tally fell from 11 to two, and the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) in one. The BJP that contested the election on its own was the runner-up in 24 ST seats.

The JMM’s marked improvement in tribal seats came on the back of the party not only retaining 12 seats it had won in 2014 but also managing to flip six seats that the BJP had won five years earlier. The JMM also flipped one seat from the All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU). The Congress flipped three seats from the BJP, one from the AJSU, and two from smaller parties. The BJP retained one seat from 2014 and flipped one from the JMM.

Like in 2014, when it marginally led the BJP in vote share, the JMM won 34.16% of the votes while the BJP had a 33.5% vote share.

This time, the JMM-led alliance is again looking to repeat its performance in the tribal seats, with the arrest of Chief Minister Hemant Soren allowing it to play the sympathy card ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. The JMM and the Congress won all five ST-reserved parliamentary seats, while the BJP-led NDA alliance won the rest of the nine Lok Sabha constituencies.

In the ST seats, the JMM led in 10 Assembly segments, the Congress in 13, and the BJP in five. Adopting political rhetoric to polarise the electorate, the BJP has raised the issue of alleged outsider influx into tribal areas, with Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan promising that a BJP government would implement the National Register of Citizens (NRC) if voted to power. The party has also made several other attempts to reach out to the tribal community, from commemorating Adivasi icons such as Birsa Munda to launching the Rs 24,000-crore PM PVTG Development Mission in Jharkhand last year.