After SC decision on Bihar quota hike, why Nitish Kumar has a tricky road ahead of him

JD(U) advisor and national spokesperson K C Tyagi told The Indian Express, “We have little option left now on this count. The Centre should consider our demand of including it in the Ninth Schedule of the Constitution.” Asked if this then becomes an issue on which the JD(U) can keep the pressure on ally BJP, Tyagi said, “We do not believe in pressure politics. Let us judge things with a broader perspective. As many as 284 items are covered under the Ninth Schedule. Bihar’s case needs to be looked at carefully. There has been a new debate after the implementation of the quota on an economic basis (reservation for Economically Weaker Section). There has now been a demand to make the EWS caste-neutral.”

In a state such as Bihar, where caste politics plays an important role, the JD(U) has a political imperative to safeguard the quota hike. The Supreme Court decision comes at a time when the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has been pressuring the JD(U) to impress upon the BJP to provide the quota hike with the Ninth Schedule cover. The RJD has been pointing out that in the Lok Sabha, the BJP is dependent on the JD(U) as well as the Telugu Desam Party more than ever before. In the meantime, former poll strategist Prashant Kishor is scheduled to launch his party that, he has said, will provide proportional quota to all top five social groups: Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (SC-STs), Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), Muslims, and general category.

“While we may well be dismissive of Prashant Kishor’s bid, his proportional representation bid in party structure can only hurt socialists’ core policy of focus on OBCs and EBCs,” said a JD(U) leader. “For the last 34 years, socialists have been leading the state and post-caste survey, raising quota cap was perhaps the last masterstroke we could have played. But now that it is caught in legal wrangles, we have to find ways to keep the issues alive for the longevity of our politics.”

The RJD said the state government would have to accept a large part of the blame for not pleading its case forcefully. “We are afraid the state government could put up the right arguments before the Supreme Court,” said RJD national spokesperson Subodh Kumar. “The same Indira Sawney case that talks about a 50% quota cap also leaves scope for discussion on giving special care to a state that has a very poor national average. For many years, Bihar has been in the 32nd position in terms of human development index. We could have played up this point.”

The RJD leader that the JD(U), given the leverage it enjoys in the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), can ensure Ninth Schedule cover for the quota hike through “pulls and pressure” on the Narendra Modi government.

However, extracting this concession from the BJP-led Centre will be easier said than done for the JD(U). “It is true that we did support the caste survey and did not oppose the quota raise. But the demand for its inclusion in the Ninth Schedule could open Pandora’s Box as similar demands will start flooding from other states. It is a very tricky issue now,” said a BJP leader.

The Nitish Kumar-led state government raised the quota cap in November 2023 in the wake of findings of the Bihar Caste Survey 2022-2023. At the time, the JD(U) was part of the Opposition INDIA bloc for which a nationwide caste census was a major plank. Now back in the NDA, the JD(U) has been treading cautiously on the matter.