Rumblings in INDIA bloc in J&K as NC, PDP slug it out over sharing Valley seats

Over the last six months, NC leaders including Omar Abdullah have repeatedly staked their claim on the Valley’s three seats that are currently represented by its MPs – Farooq Abdullah, Hasnain Masoodi and Mohammad Akbar Lone.

On the other hand, the NC’s main rival in Kashmir, the PDP, has agreed to settle for a smaller share of seats.

After the collapse of its coalition government with the BJP in 2018, the party lost all these three seats in 2019, including its South Kashmir stronghold of Anantnag where PDP president Mehbooba Mufti lost to the NC’s first-timer, Hasnain Masoodi. This time, the PDP wants the NC to contest the Srinagar and the Baramulla constituencies and leave Anantnag for the party.

The Congress, too, seems to be in agreement with the PDP’s proposal. Of these seats, the Congress can claim to have a substantial vote bank only in Anantnag, where former state unit president Ghulam Ahmad Mir stood second in the 2019 elections ahead of Mufti. However, the Congress has moved Mir out of the equation by appointing him as an All India Congress Committee (AICC) general secretary in charge of West Bengal and Jharkhand.

With the Rajouri and Poonch districts now a part of the Anantnag constituency after re-organisation, sitting MP Masoodi’s sway in the seat has weakened, especially since his stronghold in the Pulwama region is now part of the Srinagar constituency, which has further bolstered the PDP’s claim on Anantnag.

While the Congress did not field a nominee in Srinagar in the 2019 elections, its candidate in Baramulla, Haji Farooq Ahmad, finished fifth, managing to get just 34,000 votes or 7.6% of the votes polled.

Both the PDP and the NC are keen on the Congress contesting the two seats in Jammu. While the PDP wants the Congress to contest from Ladakh as well, the NC has a renewed interest in Ladakh after its recent success in the Kargil Hill Development Council elections. In the 2014 Assembly election, the Congress secured three of the four Assembly seats in Ladakh. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the seat, however, was secured by the BJP’s Jamyang Tsering Namgyal with Congress candidate Rigzin Spalbar coming at fourth position.

The differences within the INDIA bloc over seat-sharing could throw up some interesting results in the Baramulla constituency, where Sajad Gani Lone’s People’s Conference and Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party are likely to join hands.

The NC appears to be lacking a strong candidate for Baramulla – incumbent MP Mohammad Akbar Lone has not been keeping well for some time. If Lone jumps into the fray and is supported by Bukhari, he could pose a strong challenge to the NC.

In the 2019 parliamentary elections, Sajad’s first-time candidate Raja Ajaz Ali gave a stiff competition to the NC in Baramulla, securing over a lakh votes and coming second. While Sajad and Bukhari are said to be close to the BJP, any division in the anti-BJP votes in the event of the INDIA alliance’s failure to finalise seat-sharing may give Sajad an edge.

“It is a tricky situation for us,” said an NC leader on seat sharing. “We want to put up a united fight but then you don’t want to give space to your political rival, especially when you feel you are strong. It is also difficult to convince your workers to vote for someone you had always been opposing. But whatever decision is taken, it would be in the interest of the people here.”

A Congress leader also called for putting up a united fight to “defeat the nefarious designs of the BJP”. “We can have politics some other time. We can have them during the local elections. But what we need right now is to stand up to the BJP,” he said. “If we join hands, we would be in a strong position to defeat the BJP not only in Kashmir but in Jammu as well.”

For the PDP, it is time to wait and watch. While the party hopes that it would get the Anantnag seat after the negotiations, it is also looking for candidates if talks fail. “As of now, we are hopeful of an agreement. But if that doesn’t materialise, we would have to field our own candidates,” a PDP leader said. “As a political party, you can’t leave the space open for Opposition when they are not ready to budge an inch. It would be a matter of survival then.”