Rajya Sabha Waqf Bill battle tighter, but NDA may edge out Oppn 130-106

For the record, the NDA has numbers above the halfway mark in the Rajya Sabha, whose current strength is 236 members with 9 vacancies (four nominated, four in J&K and one in Andhra Pradesh). Thus, the current majority mark in the House stands at 119.

The BJP alone has 98 members, including two nominated members. Adding its NDA allies including the JD(U), TDP, NCP, Shiv Sena, RLD as well as friendly parties like the AIADMK, the ruling camp’s numbers would go up to 122.

While the JD(U) and the AIADMK have 4 members each, the NCP has 3, TDP 2, and parties like the RPI (Athawale), JD(S), Asom Gana Parishad, PMK, Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), National People’s Party, Mizo National Front, United People’s Party (Liberal), RLD, Shiv Sena and Rashtriya Lok Morcha have one member each.

One independent member, Kartikeya Sharma from Haryana, would also support the BJP as he had won with its backing.

Then there are six unattached nominated members, several of whom are likely to support the ruling coalition. These nominated members are Ranjan Gogoi, Ilaiyaraaja, Dharmasthala Veerendra Heggade, P T Usha, V Vijayendra Prasad and Sudha Murthy.

If the NDA votes in full strength and the independent and nominated members also vote in favour of the Bill as expected, the ruling side may reach a tally of 130.

The Opposition INDIA bloc, on the other hand, has 86 MPs. While the Congress has 27 members, TMC has 13, DMK and AAP 10 each, RJD five, CPM and Samajwadi Party (SP) four each, JMM three, and Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP(SP), CPI and IUML two each, and the MDMK and Kerala Congress (Mani) one each. Since the CPM’s Party Congress is underway in Madurai, it is not clear whether the party MPs would attend the House in full strength Thursday.

The Opposition camp could count on the support of two independents — former Congress leader Kapil Sibal and Assam’s Ajit Kumar Bhuyan.

Then there are three key fence-sitters — the YSRCP, BJD and BRS — all of whom have vowed to vote against the Waqf Bill. Together, these three parties have 18 members. The YSRCP and BJD have 7 MPs each and the BRS 4. It is to be seen whether these parties would actually vote against the Bill or just stage a walkout before division after registering their protest against it.

The BSP, which has one member, is yet to spell out its position on the Bill.

If the INDIA bloc votes in full strength and the independents and the YSRCP, BJD and BRS members also vote against the Bill, their numbers could touch 106.