As Oppn CMs, leaders meet on delimitation, what is at stake for their states in South, East

The Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC), which rules West Bengal, was also invited to the first JAC meeting, but the party decided to skip it.

In his address at the meeting, Stalin argued that reallocation based on population size would penalise progressive states while deepening North-South disparities. “At least eight seats will be lost if they proceed with delimitation as planned,” he said of the impact of delimitation on Tamil Nadu’s Lok Sabha seats.

Delimitation, the exercise that draws constituencies’ boundaries and decides its numbers, is expected to be held after the new Census exercise, which is much-delayed. As per the delimitation calendar set earlier, this was to happen on the basis of the first Census after 2026 – the year when Tamil Nadu faces the next Assembly elections.

Any delimitation exercise would seek to allocate seats so that each parliamentary constituency has roughly the same population. This on paper means an increase in seats in states with high populations.

Take Uttar Pradesh as an example. In the 1971 Census, on which the current seat allocation is based, UP had a population of 8.8 crore (including Uttarakhand). According to population projections from the 2011 Census, UP’s projected population is 24.3 crore for 2026. If this figure becomes the basis for the next delimitation exercise, without a change in the overall Lok Sabha seat numbers – which currently stands at 543 – UP could gain an estimated 14 seats from the current 80.

If the projected population in 2026 is made the basis of the fresh delimitation while retaining the current strength of the Lok Sabha, Tamil Nadu stands to lose out on the most seats among the states represented at the JAC, losing nine seats from 39 to 30. Kerala would lose six seats, with its tally reducing from 20 to 14. Andhra Pradesh’s tally would drop by five seats from 25 to 20. Odisha and West Bengal would lose three seats each, with the former going from 21 to 18, and the latter from 42 to 39. Karnataka and Telangana would lose two seats each, reducing from 28 to 26 and 17 to 15, respectively. Punjab would lose one seat, dropping from 13 to 12.

So, using the 2026 population projections and retaining the current strength of the Lok Sabha, eight states and UTs would have more Lok Sabha seats, 16 will have fewer seats, and the seat tally will remain unchanged for the remaining 12.

While the states in the North are most likely to benefit from a reallocation of seats based on population, the states losing out on seats in such a scenario are mostly concentrated in the South.

At a meeting of all Tamil Nadu parties (barring mainly the BJP) that he held in Chennai earlier this month, Stalin had called for the 1971 Census to remain as the basis for any allocation of seats through delimitation for 30 more years beyond 2026.

The DMK chief contended that even if the number of Parliamentary seats is to be increased, the proportion of seats for each state should be based on the proportional ratio of 1971. This would ensure that even if the number of Lok Sabha seats is raised above the current 543, the states get the same share of seats that they got as per the 1971 Census.