Deciphering Naveen Patnaik’s praise for Modi: Is the needle moving on BJP-BJD ties?

Patnaik’s praise for Modi, months before the elections due in April-May 2024, has fuelled speculation of a revival of the BJD-BJP alliance that lasted for around 11 years before Patnaik pulled the plug on it weeks before the elections in March 2009. The timing of the Odisha CM’s praise comes at a time when the NDA has seen the exit of the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu and the entry of the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka.

Founded on December 26, 1997, the BJD fought in alliance with the BJP to win a majority of the seats in Odisha at the Lok Sabha polls of 1998, 1999, and 2004, and the Assembly polls of 2000 and 2004.

The relationship between the BJD and the BJP came under strain after the Kandhamal riots in August 2008. Then, weeks before the Lok Sabha elections of 2009, Patnaik unilaterally broke off the alliance after a final meeting with then BJP Rajya Sabha MP and L K Advani’s emissary Chandan Mitra over seat-sharing turned inconclusive.

The severance of the alliance damaged the BJP’s fortunes in Odisha. It managed to win only six Assembly seats and no Lok Sabha seats in 2009, down from 32 MLAs and seven Lok Sabha MPs it had won in alliance in 2004.

“Naveen Patnaik’s decision to dump the BJP was a masterstroke. He was hailed nationally for ending his ties with the BJP following the Kandhamal riots. In the 2009 polls, the BJD won 103 out of 129 Assembly seats it contested, along with 14 of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in the state. The BJD emerged stronger and carried the momentum through 2014 and 2019,” said a senior BJD leader who did not wish to be named.

In October 2013, Patnaik stated that he wouldn’t support Narendra Modi’s bid to become the prime minister. However, after BJP’s win in 2014, he made a U-turn. Over time, as his camaraderie with PM Modi and top central ministers kept growing, in Parliament the BJD eschewed Opposition overtures to come out against the Centre on numerous occasions.

The Odisha CM went on to hail Modi’s demonetisation as a “bold step” and lauded the “surgical strike” on Pakistan. He also supported NDA nominees in the 2017 and 2022 presidential elections. This support continued during the passage of key pieces of legislation such as triple talaq, abrogation of Article 370, and NCT Bill for Delhi. It also supported the NDA government when the Opposition recently moved a no-confidence motion on the Manipur issue.

The Patnaik-Modi camaraderie, however, hasn’t helped the BJP reverse its electoral fortunes in the coastal state. Even though the BJP significantly improved its Lok Sabha tally from no seats in 2014 to eight in 2019, it failed to translate the success in the Assembly polls. In 2019, it finished with just 23 MLAs, compared to 10 five years earlier.

Moreover, state BJP leaders continue to see the BJD as their principal enemy. While briefing the media on Tuesday, Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly Jayanarayan Mishra said he gives Patnaik’s government “zero” for non-performance. Some state BJP leaders believe Patnaik’s praise of Modi was a tactic to show the BJD has a good rapport with BJP’s central leaders, hoping to demoralise the state BJP cadre.