Decode Politics: As Mohan Bhagwat stirs debate, how RSS, BJP views on population control have evolved

In July, the RSS-linked magazine Organiser published an editorial that spoke of “regional imbalance” in terms of South Indian states doing better on population control than the North and thus losing demographic advantage in an electoral democracy.

Has Mohan Bhagwat brought this up earlier?

Population control is among the top agendas of the RSS that remains unfulfilled. Bhagwat himself has spoken about having a population policy in the country and almost all big meetings of the RSS in the past few years have discussed the issue.

In his 2022 Vijayadashmi speech, Bhagwat raised the issue of “population imbalance” but also cautioned against losing the demographic dividend.

“People keep saying that we have too large a population and unless we control its growth, nothing can be achieved. This is not the complete truth. If population is used correctly, it is not a burden, but rather a means. We have demographic dividend. China is getting old. We are going to remain young for the next 30 years,” he said.

“China has gone from population control to encouraging two children per couple. We also have to think about population. How many people can our country feed after 50 years? What should be the share of the working population at that time? What kind of education and healthcare can we provide to people at that time? A comprehensive policy is required,” he added.

He even warned against excessive control over population. “We came up with a (population control) policy a few years ago. It was 2.1. We did better than the world expected and have come down to 2. But coming further down could be detrimental. Children learn social behaviour in the family and for that, you need numbers in the family. You need people of your age, you need those older than you and also those younger. When population stops increasing, societies disappear, languages disappear,” he said.

What have other Sangh leaders said?

The advice to couples to have at least three children is something that Bhagwat’s predecessor K S Sudarshan also gave. At an event in 2005, the then RSS sarsanghchalak said, “Do not get into the trap of two-child or one-child norm. If you go by the one-child norm, in the next 120 years, there won’t be any successors in your family. You should not have less than three children, and if you have more, the merrier it is.”

In 2013, at an event in Kochi, RSS general secretary Dattatreya Hosabale said “bigger Hindu families” would prevent minorities “from gaining the upper hand” in population in certain parts of the country. He added that elite Hindus should “seriously review family planning”.

In 2015, Vishwa Hindu Parishad leader Champat Rai said at a press conference that family planning “was no more a personal matter for Hindus”. He went on to suggest that “if they continued to remain content with one child, Muslims would take over the country”.

Has PM Narendra Modi ever weighed in on this issue?

Yes, he has. But Bhagwat’s stand on population runs contrary to the articulation of PM Modi on the subject. During his August 15 speech from the ramparts of the Red Fort in 2019, Modi pitched for population control.

“I would like to highlight the issue of population explosion in our country from the aegis of the Red Fort today. This rapidly increasing population poses various new challenges for us and our future generations,” he said, going on to suggest that keeping a small family was akin to an act of patriotism.

“This small section of responsible citizens is self-motivated to keep their family small. Not only do they contribute to the welfare of their family but also to the good of the nation. They express patriotism,” the PM added.

Modi, in this context, lauded parents who have maintained small families and suggested that they should serve as an inspiration for families who have not paid attention to the issue of “population explosion”.

“The people who have played this huge role need to be honoured, and by setting them as examples, we need to inspire the segment of society who are still not thinking along these lines. We need to worry about population explosion,” said the PM.

What do the numbers say?

According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 5 (2019-2021) data, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), or the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, stands at 2.

The fertility rate for Hindus stands at 1.94. Among Scheduled Castes (SCs), it is 2.08 and among Scheduled Tribes (STs) it is 2.09. For the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), the TFR is 2.02, almost comparable to the national rate, while for non-SC/ST, non-OBC castes it stands at 1.78. The TFR of Muslims has been calculated to be 2.36.

Many in the RSS have even argued for legislation to keep Dalits and tribals out of the purview of population control measures.

What legislative attempts have been made to control population?

In 2017, the Assam Assembly passed the “Population and Women’s Empowerment Policy of Assam” that was further amended in 2021 to exclude those with more than two children from applying for government jobs.

In 2023, the Uttar Pradesh Law Commission came up with a proposal to deprive those with more than two children of government subsidies. This is still being considered.

At the Union level, there has been ambiguity on the issue as far as the stated government position is concerned.

In 2019, Rajya Sabha MP Rakesh Sinha, who is known to be close to the RSS, moved a Bill seeking to enforce a two-child norm by giving incentives to those adopting the small family practice and penalties for those contravening it. While replying to a debate on the Bill, Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya told Rajya Sabha that instead of using “jabran (force)”, the government had successfully used awareness and campaigns to achieve population control. He urged Sinha to withdraw his Bill, which the latter did.

The same year, Ajay Bhatt, then BJP MP from Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar in Uttarakhand, introduced the Population Control Bill of 2019 that sought to limit the children a married couple can have to two. The Bill proposed that couples who reproduce more than two children after the Act comes into effect should be deprived of all government benefits and the right to apply for a government job. Apart from this, the Bill proposed that couples would also have to pay a fine that may extend up to Rs 50,000.

In response to a petition in the Supreme Court seeking a two-child norm, the Centre in 2020 expressed its unwillingness to bring in a coercive law and said it would be “counter-productive”.

In the interim Budget speech this February, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman even announced plans to set up a high-powered committee to consider the challenges arising from fast population growth and demographic changes. The committee has not yet been formed. However, Union Minister Prahlad Singh Patel said in May that a law on population control would be brought soon.