In the Lok Sabha elections, the Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) had declared its unconditional support to the ruling Mahayuti – comprising the Eknath Shinde-headed Shiv Sena, BJP and Ajit Pawar-led NCP – refraining from naming any candidates in Maharashtra. In the November 20 state Assembly polls, the MNS has decided to go alone. The party's first list of 45 candidates features Raj's son Amit Thackeray, who has been fielded from the prestigious Mahim constituency. This will be 32-year-old Amit's debut election. The Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT)’s headquarters Shiv Sena Bhavan falls in the Mahim constituency, which has been a Sena bastion. The seat is likely to witness a keen contest between the Sena (UBT)'s candidate and Amit amid indications that the Mahayuti may obliquely back his candidature. Mahim is one of the few Assembly seats in the state where the MNS is still considered to have a strong base. In the 2019 polls, Sada Sarvankar of the undivided Sena, which was then aligned with the BJP, emerged victorious by garnering 61,337 votes as against MNS candidate Sandeep Deshpande's 42,690 votes, who finished as the runner-up. In the 2014 polls, Sarvankar had defeated MNS leader Nitin Sardesai by a narrow margin. In 2009, Sardesai had won the seat. The first list of the MNS is said to reflect Raj's bid to go after the Opposition MVA, especially its key player Sena (UBT). Besides Uddhav Sena, the Congress and Sharad Pawar-led NCP(SP) are other constituents of the MVA. In state political circles, the MNS is seen to have a “tacit understanding” with the Mahayuti. MNS sources said the party's strategy is to concentrate on constituencies where it has had a support base. The MNS is hoping that “several of its strong candidates get elected”, sources said, adding that in the seats where its candidates do not stand a chance, the party would play the role of a “spoiler” for the MVA, especially the Uddhav Sena. Observers say the current Assembly polls hold significance for the MNS on two counts. One, this has marked the launch of the party's youth leadership, such as Raj's son, in electoral politics. And secondly, it would help the party ascertain its standing in state politics when two sets of three major parties are aligned with the Mahayut and the MVA camps, leaving barely any space for smaller parties to make their mark. Interestingly, both Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis held talks with Raj before the MNS announced ts decision to contest the Assembly polls alone. A senior BJP functionary, requesting anonymity, said, "For last one year we were weighing pros and cons of alliances with several parties including MNS. After all, MNS contesting alone suits us as its candidates would cut into Marathi votes of Sena (UBT) in some seats." Another interesting contest might be witnessed in the Worli seat held by Sena (UBT) leader and Uddhav's son Aaditya Thackeray, 34, who was the first from the Thackeray family to take a plunge into electoral politics, winning from Worli in 2019 by over 67,000 votes. The NCP's candidate Suresh Mane was then his main rival. But this time, Aaditya may face a stiff challenge from MNS candidate Sandeep Deshpande. The MNS believes it would also be able to give the MVA a tough fight in the Hadapsar and Khadakwasla seats in Pune. The party had won the Khadakwasla seat in 2009. "MNS would get Shiv Sena-BJP support in seats where it is strongly pitted against Sena (UBT). But in majority of seats where MNS candidates are poised to finish at third or lower positions the division of votes caused by them would hurt MVA,” said a Mahayuti poll manager. In 2019, the MNS had fielded 101 candidates out of the state's 288 seats. But it could win only seat, Kalyan Rural, from where the party has renominated Pramod Patil this time. The party’s vote share was then 2.22%. After leaving the Sena following differences with his cousin Uddhav, Raj founded the MNS in March 2006. It made inroads into Mumbai, Thane, Pune and Nashik, and went on to win 13 Assembly seats in the 2009 polls. However, since then the MNS has been on a downslide, even though Raj has retained his image as a firebrand leader with an ability to draw huge crowds at his rallies. The MNS's first list involves seats from across the state. The party’s decision to field Aditya Durghe from Nagpur South is interesting. In 2019, the BJP's Mohan Mate beat the Congress's Girish Pandav with a narrow margin here. The Nagpur district with 12 seats is a known BJP bastion, which is likely to see a strong challenge from the Congress. The presence of the MNS candidate may split the Opposition votes in its seats. Another constituency being closely watched is Thane city, where the BJP has again put up sitting MLA Sanjay Kelkar. The MNS has fielded Avinash Jadhav from the seat, whose recent visit to Anand Ashram associated with Sena stalwart late Anand Dighe has created ripples in the area. The Mahayuti camp believes that in Mumbai's Jogeshwari East MNS candidate Bhalchandra Ambure would provide an advantage to Sena candidate Manisha Waikar, the wife of Ravindra Waikar, by cutting into the Uddhav Sena's Marathi votes. Once a close aide of Uddhav, Waikar switched to the Shinde Sena, going on to defeat the Sena (UBT)'s Amol Kirtikar by 48 votes from the Mumbai North West constituency in the Lok Sabha polls.
