Is NCP the ‘unwanted’ third wheel in tri-party Mahayuti? Devendra Fadnavis’s remarks add to tension

It wasn’t the first time Ajit, whose NCP contested four seats and won one in the Lok Sabha polls, found himself being cornered within the Mahayuti. Two months ago, an article in the RSS-affiliated weekly Vivek stated that “workers of the BJP have not liked joining hands with the NCP”.

At the time, NCP chief spokesperson told The Indian Express: “Opinions expressed in any mouthpiece of the RSS do not necessarily reflect the mindset of the BJP or its leaders.”

After Thursday, the NCP can’t claim this either. Fadnavis said at the conclave: “In politics, you are often forced to make decisions based on circumstances. Alliance with the NCP did not elicit hundred percent approval in the party, but we have tried to convince 80% of the people.”

On whether this meant the BJP would sever ties with the NCP, Fadnavis’s reply again was not a ringing yes. “There is no time for course correction,” the Deputy CM said. “So, we have to move forward on the same course.”

While Ajit has repeatedly stressed in recent days that the NCP will remain with the Mahayuti, the timing of the suggestion from the BJP side that it is the third wheel in the tri-party alliance could not be worse. With elections so close, and after its one-seat Lok Sabha result, the Ajit Pawar NCP is even more vulnerable to the Sharad Pawar-led faction’s plans.

A day after Fadnavis’s remarks, state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule held out a sort-of olive branch to the NCP. Speaking to The Indian Express, Bawankule said: “The NCP is our partner both in the government and Mahayuti. We value them. Post-Lok Sabha polls, we have worked to ensure greater coordination at the grassroot level.”

However, an NCP Cabinet minister, who did not want to be named, indicated the party’s exasperation over the blame being laid at its door. “Even the BJP did not work for our candidates in the Lok Sabha. There was a lack of coordination, which has been acknowledged by their leaders post-polls,” the minister said.

But others feel the gap has only increased. With tough three-way seat negotiations adding to the strain, ideological differences are also playing out in the open. Unlike its other partner Shiv Sena, the BJP has traditionally been a rival of the NCP in Maharashtra. In the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP was pitted against the undivided NCP (an ally of the Congress) in 54 of the 288 seats. The NCP won in 24, and 18 of those MLAs are now in the Ajit faction.

In recent days, Ajit has conveyed his concern over communal remarks of BJP leaders in the run-up to the elections, with both its central and state leadership. Recently, the NCP chief absented himself when Shinde and Fadnavis visited the RSS headquarters after a meeting in Nagpur.

A few days ago, NCP MLC Amol Mitwari warned against “serious consequences” that might arise from remarks made by BJP MLA Nitesh Rane, who threatened to “enter mosques” while defending controversial religious leader Ramgiri Maharaj.

State NCP chief Sunil Tatkare told The Indian Express that the party’s stand on the issue was clear. “Our party is ruled by Jyotiba Phule, B R Ambedkar and Chhatrapati Shahu Maharaj. We cannot compromise on secularism,” he said, adding that the NCP’s partnership with the BJP is driven by a development agenda.

As per sources, several senior NCP leaders are exploring all options, including contesting as Independents, to safeguard their vote banks, including minorities.

On the government front, earlier this week, the Ajit-led Finance Department objected to handing over 5 hectares of land to a trust headed by BJP state chief Bawankule at a low rate. Finally, it was given, but for a higher amount.

Against this backdrop, there are some voices within the BJP raising questions over the “utility” of the alliance with the NCP. A senior BJP leader said: “We had anticipated that the split in the NCP (with Ajit coming to the BJP side) would help us consolidate our base in Western Maharashtra.” But this did not happen in the Lok Sabha polls, with the alliance helping “neither the BJP nor the NCP”.

However, others caution against pushing Ajit too far into a corner. “If we antagonise the Ajit Pawar faction, a majority will return to the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP). This would be fatal,” a leader said.

The litmus test of seat negotiations is still ahead. Senior NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal has said the party should not get anything less than 80 seats, if not more. “We should get 90 seats. Why should we play second fiddle?” he said. The BJP is said to be ready to offer 50 to 55 seats.