Why Maharashtra local body polls fertile ground for BJP to advance Assembly gains

The Supreme Court held that reservation for the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) for the polls, a contentious issue that led to the delay in conducting the elections, would exist as prior to the 2022 Banthia Commission report. That report had recommended that the Census ascertain the exact population of OBCs and, in the meantime, 27% of seats should be reserved for them in local body polls in Maharashtra.

With the Supreme Court clearing the way, Maharashtra will now hold local body elections, from municipal corporations down to panchayats. In total, elections are to be held for 29 municipal corporations, including newly formed Jalna and Icchalkaranji, 257 municipal councils, 26 district councils and 289 panchayat samitis.

The decision comes against the backdrop of the BJP-led Centre’s announcement on April 30 of a caste enumeration as part of the next population Census, which is expected to give the NDA an advantage in these polls, particularly given that the Shiv Sena and NCP will contest their first local body elections since the splits in the parties.

While Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis of the BJP announced that the Mahayuti coalition, which includes the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, will contest the local body polls together, the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), Sharad Pawar-led NCP(SP) and Congress looks unlikely to come together for these polls. Thackeray, in January this year, had said that his Sena (UBT) would contest the local body elections independently.

Municipal corporations

Despite the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena’s long standing alliance, the two parties often contested local body elections independently. Across the state’s 27 municipal corporations, which are the largest local governance bodies that oversee urban areas with a population of at least 10 lakh, there are a total 2,736 seats. As per the existing quota provisions, 740 seats are reserved for Backward Classes, 327 for Scheduled Castes and 76 for Scheduled Tribes, with the remaining 1,593 for the general category. Just over half or 1,374 are reserved for women across all categories.

All of the 27 municipal corporations (excluding two that were created after the most recent polls were held), last held elections between 2015 and 2018. In this period, the BJP emerged as the single-largest party in terms of seats in 16 corporations, followed by the undivided Shiv Sena and Congress in five each, and the undivided NCP and other parties in one each.

[TABLE: Seats won in municipal corporation elections]

Across all 27 municipal corporations, which have a total 2,736 seats, the BJP had won 1,099 seats (or 40.2% of the total seats) and an overall vote share of 31.3%, well ahead of its rivals in the polls held from 2015 to 2018. While the Shiv Sena was the next largest party with 489 seats and an 18.49% vote share, the Congress was close behind at 439 seats and a 15.53% vote share, followed by the NCP at 294 seats and an 11.06% vote share.

Meanwhile, NOTA or the ‘none of the above’ option got 2.27% of the vote share across all 27 corporations. It was the highest in Ulhasnagar at 4.58%.

In and around Mumbai

Notably, in the 227-seat Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), which is the richest civic body in India with a budget larger than some states, the Sena was the single-largest party with 84 seats, closely followed by the BJP at 82 seats, with the Congress trailing at 32 seats, in the most recent election in February 2017.

Though the Sena managed to gain a majority in the BMC with the help of Independents and smaller parties, since the corporation’s term ended in 2022, there has been a tussle between the two Sena factions over defecting former corporators. With the BJP having drawn much closer to the Sena in 2017, after winning just 31 seats in 2012, the split in the Shiv Sena could end up benefiting the BJP most. Historically, it is the Sena that has dominated not only the BMC elections, but also the political landscape in Mumbai for over three decades.

The undivided Shiv Sena was also a key player in the eight other corporations falling within the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) – it was the single-largest party in Thane, with 67 of its total 131 seats, and in Kalyan Dombivali, with 52 of its 122 seats. Of Navi Mumbai’s 111 seats, the undivided NCP led with 52, followed by the Shiv Sena at 38. In Ulhasnagar, which has 78 seats, the BJP got 32 seats with the Sena close behind at 25.

In the MMR’s Panvel and Mira-Bhayandar corporations, the BJP was the dominant party with 51 of the 78 seats in the former, and 61 of the 95 seats in the latter. Bhiwandi Nizampur was the only corporation in the MMR where the Congress led with 47 of the total 90 seats. However, Vasai Virar was an outlier – the Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA), led by former Congress MLA Hitendra Thakur, won an overwhelming majority, with 106 seats in the 115-member corporation.

Across all nine corporations in the MMR, the BJP and undivided Shiv Sena were neck-and-neck with 317 and 305 seats, respectively. The vote-share battle, too, was tight with the BJP marginally in the lead at 28.04% compared to the Sena’s 27.2%. The Congress and undivided NCP trailed far behind at 108 and 103 seats, respectively. Overall, the Congress had a 12.28% vote share in the MMR, while the NCP secured 7.92% of the vote share.

Beyond Mumbai

Outside Mumbai, the BJP was the leading party in 12 municipal corporations. In 11 of these, the BJP alone won an outright majority. Among the larger corporations, the BJP won 97 of the total 167 seats in Pune, 108 of the 151 seats in Nagpur, 77 of the 128 seats in Pimpri Chinchwad, and 66 of the 122 seats in Nashik.

Apart from three corporations in the MMR, the Shiv Sena was the largest party in Ahmednagar and Aurangabad, two districts that have since been renamed to Ahilyanagar and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar. Besides Bhiwandi Nizampur in the MMR, the Congress was dominant in Malegaon, Kolhapur, Parbhani and Nanded Waghala.

An analysis of the vote shares in municipal corporations shows that parties were able to secure more than 40% of the vote share in just five corporations. The highest vote share was recorded by the BJP in Panvel at 47.83%, followed by 47.61% in Jalgaon and Mira-Bhayandar at 41.65%. The Congress had the next highest vote share overall at 46.46% in Nanded Waghala and 40.06% in Latur, where the BJP still emerged as the largest party, despite a 38.77% vote share.

[TABLE: Vote shares in municipal corporation elections]The Shiv Sena’s best performance came in Thane, where it secured a 35.29% vote share, while the NCP topped out at 38.48% in Navi Mumbai. The Raj Thackeray-led Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) was a factor in at least five corporations where it secured more than 5% of the vote share. The MNS’s best performance came in Kalyan Dombivli and Nashik, where it crossed 10% of the vote share.

Municipal councils to panchayat samitis

Between 2014 and 2018, Maharashtra also saw the last round of elections for municipal councils and committees, district councils and panchayat samitis.

The state has a total 362 municipal councils and committees, which are a rung below municipal corporations among urban governance bodies, that went to polls between 2014 and 2018. Of the total 7,493 seats that voted in this period, the BJP was the clear front-runner, winning 1,944 seats and 22.14% of the overall vote share. The Congress followed with 1,577 seats and a vote share of 19.46%. At this level, the NCP outdid the Shiv Sena – the former won 1,294 seats and 15.88% vote share, while the latter managed 1,035 seats and 13.38% vote share.

Across the state’s 34 districts, there are also 2,000 seats in district councils and 4,000 seats in rural panchayat samitis that went to polls between 2014 and 2018. In the district councils, the BJP led with 526 seats and 24.23% vote share, followed by the NCP at 459 and 2.36%, Congress at 443 and 19.54%, and Shiv Sena at 335 and 17.3%. In the panchayat samitis, the BJP was on top with 1,123 seats and 23.76% vote share, followed by the NCP at 859 and 21.23%, Congress at 833 and 19.17%, and Shiv Sena at 729 and 17.77%.

At the lowest level are the rural gram panchayats at the village level. Between 2014 and 2018, 27,782 such gram panchayats held elections.