The Maharashtra house of cards: Why Fadnavis thinks he has the winning hand

It is against this backdrop that Fadnavis’s remarks, claiming that Sharad Pawar was very much in the know of Ajit’s decision to defect to the BJP’s side in a short-lived bid to form the government in November 2019, are being seen.

Apart from kindling tensions within the NCP, the BJP Deputy CM’s remarks may fan the distrust within the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition ahead of crucial BMC elections, as Fadnavis hints that past master Pawar played all sides in the November 2019 game of cards.

BJP political managers say there is nothing wrong in what Fadnavis said. “Everything is fair in love and war,” one of them said. “Plus, what Fadnavis said about Sharad Pawar is not entirely false.”

In that, the party might not be far off the mark because many have long argued that it was unlikely Pawar Senior was entirely blindsided by Ajit, his nephew and protege.

They point to the sequence of events after the Maharashtra results which came out on October 24, 2019, leaving no single party clear winner. The BJP got 105 seats, the Shiv Sena had 56, the NCP 54, the Congress 44, with 29 MLAs either including Independents or members of smaller parties.

Between October 24 and November 13, Sharad Pawar maintained that the NCP would sit in the Opposition as even with 16 Independents in its favour, its coalition with the Congress was short of the magic number of 145 in the 288-member Assembly.

However, sources said, Pawar was far from conceding defeat, and had an eye on the growing differences within the BJP and Shiv Sena over the CM’s chair. On November 13, Union Home Minister Amit Shah categorically ruled out compromising on the CM post.

Sources said the BJP was by then also scouting for partners and saw a good alternative in the NCP. A BJP general secretary who was part of the meetings says, “When we realised that the Sena was not reciprocating to our terms and conditions, we opened channels with the NCP. And elicited a positive response from a section led by Ajit Pawar.”

Sources said Ajit was in favour of an alliance with the BJP, as was a senior Delhi-based NCP leader, who thought the two parties should tie up in the state as well as at the Centre. They felt that this alliance would be “stable” and better for the future of Maharashtra, given that the BJP was in power at the Centre.

Pawar Senior though had opened talks with the miffed Shiv Sena. Within nine days of Shah’s announcement regarding the CM post, came news that the Congress, NCP and Shiv Sena had reached an agreement to form the government, led by Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray. It was seen as entirely the handiwork of Sharad Pawar, having convinced the Congress to align with the Sena, over a series of meetings, including with Sonia Gandhi.

NCP insiders admit that the Ajit faction was taken by surprise at this development and expressed its disapproval, as he was sure the disparate coalition could not last. Ajit was believed to have at least 15 NCP MLAs with him.

And so it followed that, a day after the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition was announced by the Sena, NCP and Congress, Fadnavis announced the formation of a government with Ajit by his side. While he took oath as CM in the early hours of November 23, 2019, Ajit was sworn in as Deputy CM.

The overnight operation – with President’s rule revoked at 5.27 am, and consent obtained for oath-taking in the dawn hours – took the state by surprise. Even state BJP president Chandrakant Patil and senior BJP leaders, including Girish Mahajan, a close aide of Fadnavis, were reportedly in the dark till 4 am, as were senior bureaucrats at the Raj Bhavan till the last moment.

NCP leaders question Fadnavis’s claims now that all of this had Pawar’s backing and happened with his knowledge, saying that if the NCP chief wanted the same, he would not have tried getting the Congress, NCP and Sena together, to form the MVA.

A senior NCP leader said Pawar Senior might have consented to state leaders engaging with the BJP, but “there is a difference between engaging in talks and commitment”. “The BJP might have taken the NCP’s support for granted as Ajit Pawar was the party’s state legislative leader, and he talked of having 54 MLAs with him.”

The NCP leader also pointed out that it was unlikely Pawar would hold talks at the level of Fadnavis. “He has access to PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, and he never gave any commitment to them too regarding the alliance with the BJP.”

On Monday, Uddhav Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut suggested that Sharad Pawar had even more balls in the air. He pointed out that, convinced that Fadnavis had a majority via Ajit, he said, the BJP government at the Centre had lifted President’s rule, leaving the field open for the Opposition MVA to move in after their bid failed.

How much support Ajit had at that point is now a moot question, NCP sources said. “Any attempt to forge an alliance without Pawar Senior’s contest was bound to be short-lived,” a leader said.

After the Fadnavis-Ajit Pawar government fell within three days, Ajit made his way back to the NCP, and was apparently “forgiven”. However, the bad blood between the loyalists of Ajit and Pawar Senior remains, which is what Fadnavis seems to be counting on now.

He even sought to defend Ajit, while attacking Sharad Pawar. “To be fair, Ajit Pawar kept his promise of an alliance. But he was forced to withdraw,” Fadnavis said in his remarks, over the course of an event by local channel TV9 Marathi.

Apart from setting the cat among the pigeons in the Opposition camp, the remarks also help Fadnavis again send the message that he has been consistently “betrayed” – first by Uddhav, second time by Sharad Pawar and, to those who get the message, the third time by the BJP itself, which forced him to settle for Deputy CM last year, when the BJP came back to power after splitting the Shiv Sena, in a continuation of the 2019 power games.