Despite big Lok Sabha poll win in Bengal, why TMC may have reasons to worry

In the area under the Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC), out of 144 wards, the TMC currently has 138 councillors, whereas the BJP has three, and the Left-Congress combine have three. The TMC won both of Kolkata’s Lok Sabha seats. But in both seats, its lead was lower than that in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The principal Opposition BJP was ahead in 48 KMC wards, while the Left-Congress combine got a lead in three wards. The TMC got the leads in 93 wards.

A senior TMC leader said, “Our party has fallen behind in the wards of several heavyweight KMC councillors, such as in ward no. 85, whose Mayor-in-Council Debashis Kumar is the MLA in Rashbehari Assembly segment besides being the TMC district president of South Kolkata. Our party was also trailing in ward no. 8 of Pooja Panja, the daughter of Shashi Panja, who is a state minister and the CM’s confidant.”

He said, “It’s the same story in ward no. 31 under MLA Paresh Pal’s Assembly segment Beleghata. The BJP also got leads in Mayor Parishad member Asim Kumar Basu’s ward no. 70, as well as in ward no. 72, where Mayor-in-Council Sandeep Bakshi is the councillor. Interestingly, both these wards are under Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s Assembly segment, Bhabanipur, where the TMC trailed in five wards, and was ahead in only three.”

He added, “The BJP was also ahead of the TMC in the wards of our senior councillors and borough chairpersons like Jui Biswas (ward no. 81, under Tollygunj Assembly segment), Sushanta Ghosh (ward no. 108, Kasba), Sudeep Polle (ward no. 123, Behala Purba), Sadhana Bose (ward no. 38, Jorasanko) and Sushmita Bhattacharya (ward no. 63, Bhabanipur). It also got lead in TMC councillor Sudarshana Mukhopadhyay’s ward no. 64 (Bhabanipur Assembly seat), and Bishwarup Dey’s ward no. 48 (Chowringhee Assembly seat).”

The TMC trailed in industry minister Sashi Panja’s Assembly seat Shyampukur by 1,599 votes, even though the party won Kolkata Uttar Lok Sabha constituency by 92,560 votes. Even in the Bhabanipur Assembly segment, the TMC’s lead fell to 8,297 votes, from 58,835 votes with which Mamata had won in the 2021 bypoll.

An analysis of the election data shows that the BJP was also ahead in many municipal bodies like Bolpur, Gobardanga, Krishnanagar, Balurghat, Raigunj, Bardhaman, English Bazar and Jhargram, among others.

North 24 Parganas

Apart from Kolkata, the ruling party is also worried about the results in the suburbs, such as all four municipalities under the Barasat Lok Sabha seat. Among the 35 wards of Barasat Municipality, the TMC was ahead in only six wards. In Ashokenagar Municipality, it was ahead in only six of 23 wards. The TMC lagged behind in all wards under Habra Municipality, which is the Assembly segment of jailed former food minister Jyotipriya Mallick. In Madhyamgram Municipality, the party was ahead of the BJP in only 18 out of 28 wards.

The ruling party was also behind in all 22 wards of Bangaon Municipality, whose former mayor Shankar Adhya has been in jail over the alleged ration scam. This might be the main reason for the party’s collapse in the municipal region there, several TMC leaders believe.

In the Gobardanga Municipality of North 24 Parganas district, the TMC lagged behind in 15 of 17 wards. The TMC leaders believe that apart from corruption taint against some of them, the party had also failed to deliver public service in this belt.

South Bengal

In Bardhaman Purba Lok Sabha seat, the TMC’s Sharmila Sarkar won by over 1,60,000 votes. But she lagged behind in all three urban areas under the constituency — Katwa, Kalna and Dainhat. In the party’s assessment, this was attributed to organisational weaknesses besides the voters’ dissatisfaction with public services.

Apart from this, the TMC trailed in several other major Municipalities — from Jhargram in Jangalmahal (under Jhargram Assembly segment, Jhargram Lok Sabha constituency) to those under Alipurduar and Balurghat Lok Sabha seats in North Bengal.

Of the 17 wards in Jhargram Municipality, the BJP was ahead in 11 wards, while the TMC was ahead in only six.

Four TMC MLAs — Partha Chatterjee, Jyotipriya Mallick, Jibankrishna Saha and Manik Bhattacharya — had been sent to jail in alleged scams related to school staff recruitments and ration distribution. Of them, Saha got bail just before the Lok Sabha elections, and the TMC won the Baharampur Lok Sabha seat by 85,022 votes, but the BJP got a lead of 558 votes in Saha’s Assembly segment of Barwan.

The same story was repeated in Mallick’s Assembly segment of Habra, where the TMC trailed by 19,933 votes, even though it won the Barasat Lok Sabha seat by 1,14,189 votes.

However, the TMC managed to take the lead in the Assembly segments of Partha Chatterjee (Behala Paschim Assembly under South Kolkata Lok Sabha seat) and Manik Bhattacharya (Palasipara Assembly seat, Krishnanagar Lok Sabha constituency).

North Bengal

North Bengal had been slipping out of the TMC’s hands since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Although it had made a recovery of sorts in the 2021 Assembly polls, the latest Lok Sabha results show it has been wiped out of all but one seat (Coochbehar), with the BJP winning six seats in the region.

In Malda district, where the BJP and the Congress won one Lok Sabha seat each, the TMC trailed in all 12 Assembly segments, having won eight of these in the 2021 Assembly polls. These included state minister Sabina Yasmin’s Mothabari, where the ruling party trailed by 45,688 votes. It also trailed by 4,343 votes in Harishchandrapur, the Assembly segment of another minister Tajmul Hossain. The Congress took the lead in six segments in this district, whereas the BJP was ahead in the other six.

Commenting on the highlights of the polls’ micro-analysis, BJP leader and KMC councillor Sajal Ghosh, alleged, “Most TMC councillors are not liked by common people. The BJP got more votes wherever voters can’t be bought, especially in urban areas, whose residents are economically better off than those in rural areas, and who are also more in touch with what’s happening around India and the world.”

Hitting back, TMC leader Shantanu Sen said: “The contexts of Assembly and Lok Sabha elections are different. This result won’t be repeated in the Assembly polls. Nevertheless, the party must investigate why this happened.”

The CPI(M)’s Sujan Chakraborty, who lost from the Dum Dum Lok Sabha seat, said, “People in urban areas are more independent in their thinking, and voted against the TMC, which mostly went to the BJP. It is our fault that they did not choose us as the alternative. But this is a trend since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where the BJP gets more votes in urban areas than rural areas.”