Even if the results for the BJP are as massive as the exit polls have predicted, there will be smaller details that the party will be watching out for. If the majority is smaller, or if the Opposition’s best-case scenario comes true, the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah-dominated party can expect voices of disgruntlement within to grow. The Modi effect Ever since he became the BJP's prime ministerial candidate in 2013, Narendra Modi has been the face of the party, and at the heart of all its activities. Both in 2014 and 2019, the party’s massive mandate was seen as a reflection of how Modi had transcended caste lines, bringing together a coalition of disparate groups, especially in Uttar Pradesh. This was an add-on to the successful messaging by the Modi government of its widespread welfare schemes, “hassle-less” delivery of the same, and its “big-vision” focus on grand infrastructure projects. Unlike the past two Lok Sabha elections though, voters did not seem as under the Modi spell this time, especially from the lower social and economic strata, who expressed their anger over issues such as the Agnipath scheme, the paper leaks, the “lack of jobs”, the government’s attitude towards farmers etc. The Opposition, which talked of caste census, also seemed to strike a chord with its sustained campaign that a returning Modi government would change the Constitution and “remove reservations”. If the BJP largely holds on in the Hindi heartland, it will be a defeat of the Opposition’s narrative. And a reaffirmation that Modi overrides local voter concerns – a sentiment that was visible as one met people on the ground. BJP as an election machine Now it is almost a cliche that the party election machinery, supervised keenly by Amit Shah, is at work 24X7. Change that to 24X7X365 days, quip BJP leaders. If party leaders are not physically on the ground, at various levels, the BJP is omnipresent on social media, accentuating its government’s message. There is some concern, however, that this election machinery is now increasingly subservient to Modi, feeding into his larger-than-life persona. While the winning spree has kept any tensions under the surface, discontent has been brewing – and spilled out this time at several places – over candidate choices and alliance pressures. On whether there was tension on another front – the party’s relationship with its ideological parent RSS – BJP leaders dismissed the same. Sangh volunteers across the country played a key role in bringing voters to booths, leaders said. The outcome on Tuesday – especially changes in the BJP’s victory margins – could give an indication of the same. Can BJP override Assembly-LS divide One of the most recent and striking examples of how voters choose differently when it comes to the state and Parliament was Odisha in 2019, with the BJP making big gains in the Lok Sabha but failing to translate the same in the Assembly. While it has been hit and miss for other simultaneous elections, at a time when the BJP is determined to implement one nation, one election, it will be interesting to see the voting pattern this time. Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh saw Assembly polls along with the Lok Sabha. The results for the Assemblies of Sikkim and Arunachal are already in, giving clean sweeps to the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha and the BJP, respectively. Will Odisha repeat 2019, and vote for the BJD in the Assembly again? Or will Andhra break away from 2019, when both the Parliament and state elections were won by the YSRCP? BJP and alliances With the BJP winning 303 seats in 2019, its allies had felt themselves superfluous, leading to the gradual shrinking of the NDA. However, even as the Opposition parties came together as INDIA this time, the BJP too set about insuring itself against any losses by wooing back old and new partners. It was successful in Bihar with the JD(U), in Karnataka with the JD(S), in Andhra Pradesh with the TDP and JanaSena Party, and in Maharashtra after breaking up the NCP and Shiv Sena. Its attempts to tie up with the BJD in Bihar and Akali Dal in Punjab, however, fell through. The results tomorrow will show how successful the BJP’s permutations and commutations have been. There has been talk about allies pulling the party down, especially in Maharashtra. However, the BJP is playing for the bigger math, with every number brought to the table a plus. Welfare politics As the Congress framed a campaign around Rahul Gandhi's Nyay guarantees, the BJP came up with Modi's guarantees. The Congress, which had succeeded in wooing voters with its welfare programme promises in Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh and Telangana state elections, started unveiling the Nyay guarantees before the voters much ahead of elections, in fact in tandem with the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra. With unemployment and rising prices becoming part of the political discourse in the run-up to the elections, the Nyay guarantees were seen as getting traction. Come Tuesday, it will be clear whose guarantees drew more faith from voters, with Modi emphasising that his government recognised and was committed to “four caste groups” – farmers, women, poor and youth.
