As Karnataka votes today, BJP-JD(S) to face first big challenge, Congress bets on welfare guarantees

The Congress that came to power in Karnataka last year is banking on the implementation of the five guarantees given to voters, a fresh set of guarantees for the Lok Sabha polls, and the popularity of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah among some caste groups and minorities to pose a challenge to the BJP-JD(S) alliance.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi with former Karnataka CM B S Yediyurappa. (File Photo)

“Essentially, the dominant castes with land and resources — the Vokkaligas and Lingayats — are supporting the BJP-JD(S) alliance due to various local reasons and the Modi factor. The weaker castes who have resources and work as farmhands or labourers are looking towards the Congress because of the guarantees given and promised,” said Ravi Challakere, a gram panchayat member from the Lingayat community in the SC-reserved Chitradurga Lok Sabha constituency.

Where BJP and JD(S) are well placed

One of the factors apparent on the ground is the cohesion between the BJP and the JD(S) in seats such as Mandya, Kolar, Bangalore Rural, Tumkur, and Bangalore North. This is expected to yield results in these seats for the alliance partners. The JD(S) that is contesting Mandya, Hassan, and Kolar with the backing of the BJP has found the going difficult in Hassan and has required former PM and party supremo H D Deve Gowda to camp extensively in the region to seek support for his grandson Prajwal Revanna who is facing strong anti-incumbency in the seat.

In general, the consolidation of Vokkaliga support in favour of the JD(S) is expected in most seats, helping the BJP overcome the lack of leaders and the absence of a clear wave for PM Modi in the region. Vokkaliga pride is expected to deliver Mandya for JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy despite the Congress’s strong push with its guarantees and spending.

The BJP is also expected to register comfortable wins again in its strongholds in the economically well-off coastal Karnataka districts of Dakshina Kannada and Udupi-Chikamagalur where the Modi and Hindutva factors over-ride everything else.

The BJP is also expected to maintain its dominance in the urban pockets of Bangalore — Central, South, and North. The BJP is giving the Congress a tough fight in the Bangalore Rural stronghold of state Congress chief D K Shivakumar. It also has an upper hand in the semi-urban Mysuru-Kodagu seat that has become a BJP stronghold in recent years.

Where Congress stands a good chance

The Congress is also expected to do well in seats where the dominant castes do not have a large presence such as Chamarajanagar and Chitradurga that are reserved for the Scheduled Castes. The Congress stands a good chance here even though the BJP won these seats in 2019 by big margins. These impoverished regions have large numbers of Dalits, backward castes, tribals and minorities for whom the Congress guarantees of Rs 2,000 per month to a woman member of a poor household, free bus travel, free power, and rice compensations have proved beneficial.

But the Congress is not expected to do well in its former stronghold Kolar that is also reserved for Dalits and was won by the BJP for the first time in 2019. The Congress is likely to lose the seat on account of the JDS-BJP alliance consolidating votes of the dominant Vokkaliga community in favour of the JD(S) candidate while Dalit votes of the Congress are set to be split due to a silent rebellion by its seven-time MP and senior leader K H Muniyappa over denial of the seat to his son-in-law at the instance of local Congress MLAs.

What are the poll issues?

The Congress is banking on its guarantee schemes to consolidate its traditional vote base among the weaker communities and minorities, along with small splits in the dominant castes to perform better than it did in 2019 when it won only one of Karnataka’s 28 Lok Sabha constituencies.

Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah and Deputy CM D K Shivakumar have appealed to their respective caste groups of OBC Kurubas and dominant Vokkaligas to support the party since the poll outcome could determine their futures in the government.

Fearing the possibility of the most backward communities allying with the Congress, the BJP has attempted to push voters to make decisions on emotive issues rather than livelihood ones. The murder of a college girl, Neha Hiremath, in Hubballi by her estranged partner, a Muslim man, also became a campaign issue for the BJP. The Congress has been actively campaigning among Dalits about the possibility of the BJP changing the Constitution if the NDA alliance wins more than 400 seats. “This messaging is active in the community,” said Kiran A, the aide of a Dalit Congress leader.