In Rajasthan’s bipolar arena, Independents the perennial third in a two-horse race

Election Commission (EC) data shows that Independents were the second-biggest group in seats won in the first two elections of the Rajasthan Assembly. In 1951, their tally stood at 35 in the 160-member Assembly while in 1957 it was 32 in the 176-member House. In these elections, the Congress won the maximum number of seats — 82 in 1951 and 119 in 1957.

The Independents, however, slipped to third place in 1962 when their tally came down to 22. Apart from the Congress (88), the other party that was ahead of the Independents was the Swatantra Party (SWA), which won 36 constituencies. In the following elections, held in 1967, the Independents slipped to fourth with 16 seats in the House of 184 members. This time, the three parties that were ahead of the Independents were the Congress (89), the SWA (48), and the Bharatiya Jan Sangh (22).

In 1972, Congress won in a landslide (145 seats in the 184-member Assembly), decimating the SWA and the Jan Sangh, which were reduced to 11 and eight seats respectively. The number of Independents too came down to 11 seats. In 1977, the Janata Party (JNP) swept the Assembly elections winning 152 seats in the House of 200, reducing the Congress seat count to 41 while only five Independents won.

The Assembly elections of 1980 saw the entry of the BJP. The Congress made a strong comeback by winning 133 seats in the now 200-member Assembly. The BJP, which was contesting its first election after its foundation that same year, bagged 32 seats to come second. The Independents managed to win 12 seats and remained third.

In 1985, the Congress retained power but with a reduced number of seats (113) as the BJP and the Lok Dal (LKD) posed a challenge by winning 39 and 27 seats respectively, as the Independents slipped to fourth with 10 constituencies.

In 1990, the Congress lost the election. The BJP with 85 seats emerged as the single-largest party but fell short of the majority mark of 101 in the House of 200. It was followed by the Janata Dal (55) and the Congress (50). The Independents, with a tally of nine, remained fourth.

Since 1993, the BJP and the Congress have won the Rajasthan Assembly elections alternatively — in 1993 BJP won 95 and Congress 76; in 1998, Congress 153 and BJP 33; in 2003, BJP 120 and Congress 56; in 2008, Congress 96 and BJP 78; in 2013, BJP 163 and Congress 21; and in 2018, Congress 100 and BJP 73. In all these six polls, the Independents have stood third by winning 21 seats in 1993, seven in 1998, 13 in 2003, 14 in 2008, seven in 2013, and 13 in 2018.

In the 15 Assembly elections held in the state to date, the combined vote share of the Independent candidates has ranged between 8.21% and 27.49%.

Not only have the Independents been a major factor in deciding the outcome of several seats in the state in terms of seats won but also in vote share. For instance, they were the runners-up across eight Assembly seats in 2013 and 11 seats in 2018.