When Union Minister Amit Shah launched the BJP’s Karnataka election campaign last December from Mandya in the southern part of the state, the underlying message for party workers was clear. They were told to make inroads in the Old Mysuru region that has so far only seen close contests between the Congress and the Janta Dal (Secular). Across all of the state’s Assembly polls, the BJP has struggled to cross the double-digit mark in the 48 constituencies in the region’s eight districts.
These eight districts, excluding Bengaluru Urban, are Mysuru, Chamarajanagar, Hassan, Mandya, Ramanagar, Bengaluru Rural, Kolar, and Chikkaballapur. The region is turning out to be a battleground for the Congress and the BJP to expand their tallies. For the JD(S), these seats will be a litmus test of the party’s relevance in a region considered its primary base.
South Karnataka is dominated by the Vokkaliga community, said to be the second-most dominant community in the state, that has largely favoured either the JD(S) or the Congress over the years. The JD(S) had a resurgence in the region in the 2018 polls but at the expense of the Congress.
Results of the last two polls also indicate that the Congress has lost its edge in this part of the state as its tally reduced from 26 in 2008 to 16 in 2018. This time, the Congress is hopeful that state Congress president and Vokkaliga leader D K Shivakumar, who represents the Kankapura constituency in Ramanagar, can swing his community’s votes in its favour.
The Congress has vacated the Melukote seat in Mandya to the Sarvodaya Karnataka Party, which is backed by various farmer groups, and is looking to cash in on the support from the unions.
Senior Congress leader and former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, who wields influence in the Mysuru and Chamarajanagar districts, is also expected to play a key role. Congress leader Ramesh Kumar recently said the former CM’s contest from the Kolar could benefit the party in neighbouring Chikkaballapur and Bengaluru Rural districts too.
The BJP’s efforts to mobilise in the region have yet to pay dividends. Unlike other parts of the state where it has strong leaders with the backing of their respective communities, the BJP does not have a Vokkaliga leader to challenge the status of either Shivakumar or JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy. Only two leaders from the region — K Narayanagowda and K Sudhakar — have found representation in the Cabinet of the Basavraj Bommai-led government.
Independent MP from Mandya Sumalatha Ambareeesh’s recent move to extend support to the BJP grabbed headlines. However, insiders say it would not have a “strong impact” as Sumalatha’s base was “restricted”, having won the 2019 polls largely due to support from the Congress and farmers’ groups.
But the real test here is for the JD(S). With party leader H D Kumaraswamy aggressively campaigning to retain the Vokkaliga core support base, the party is attempting to retain its tally from 2018 when it won 25 constituencies after sweeping all seven seats in Mandya and six of the seven seats in Hassan.