Gujarat: Polarised Patel votes hold the key

The real Gujarati asmita vote would be tested by trends in the Anand, Bardoli and Sabarkantha Lok Sabha seats. Anand has gone to a non-Congress MP only twice since 1962, but this time Congress candidate and union minister Bharatsinh Solanki might face a tough contest from BJP’s Dilip Patel, whose nomination resulted in polarising the Patel votes.

With around 14 per cent of the votes, the tribal belt stretching from Sabarkantha district in the north to Valsad in the south passing through Panchmahal, Narmada, Dang and Navsari districts bordering Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, has been largely loyal to the Congress in general elections.

Chhota Udepur is the only one of four ST reserved seats currently with the BJP, while Dahod, Bardoli and Valsad elected Congress MPs in 2009.

If Tushar Chaudhary, sitting MP trails in Bardoli, or if Shankersinh Vaghela, the Congress strongman trails in Sabarkantha, the Gujarati asmita could be at work here. The Saurashtra-Kutch region has a cluster of eight constituencies influenced by Patel votes, which partly voted against the BJP in 2012 assembly elections, and is expected to back Modi fully.