In Gujarat’s Adivasi belt, a triangular contest takes shape but advantage BJP

Gujarat’s tribal belt stretches across 14 districts, from Ambaji in the north to Umbergaon in the south. This region shares borders with Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra. Though Adivasis constitute 14 per cent of the electorate, in the past they have been one of the biggest contributors to the Congress’s tally in the Assembly. The party found electoral success in the 1980s with its KHAM social alliance strategy. The alliance was made up of the Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, and Muslim communities, which constitute over 50 per cent of the state’s population.

Of the 27 ST-reserved seats, BJP won eight last time and the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) bagged the two, in alliance with the Congress. Fourteen of these constituencies are in south Gujarat, where the BJP holds eight seats at the moment; 10 are in central Gujarat, where the BJP has five, and three are in north Gujarat, where two of the Congress-held seats are now vacant and one is still with the Opposition party.

Among the election issues for tribals are unemployment, healthcare, education, caste certificate, and the implementation of the Panchayats (Extension to the Scheduled Areas) Act, or PESA Act. While the BJP is promoting Kevadia in Narmada district, where the Statue of Unity came up in 2018, as a “model of tribal development” and employment, the Opposition has taken up the issue of land acquisition and the non-implementation of PESA, which gives indigenous land owners the absolute right to their property.

BJP confident

Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the BJP’s campaign from Kaprada in Valsad on November 6, saying that for him “A” stood for Adivasis. Five days earlier, the PM visited Mangarh in bordering Rajasthan, where he paid tribute to Adivasis killed by the British in 1913.

But, like the Congress, the ruling party, too, has not been able to groom a tribal leader and is banking on the PM’s appeal to see it through. Following Droupadi Murmu’s election as President of India, the party organised celebratory processions in the state’s tribal areas and Modi also made several pre-election visits to the Adivasi areas of Dahod, Tapi, Panchmahals, and Jambughoda.

The BJP, which now controls all the taluka and district panchayats in the tribal districts, is looking to increase its ST seat tally. The party’s Bharuch MP Mansukh Vasava, who is in charge of the ST seats in south Gujarat, told The Indian Express, “It is true that tribals have been a bit angry with the party over certain issues like PESA but that is a small number. We are reaching out to them too. By and large, tribals are aware that the BJP government, in the last 20 years, has made their lives better and brought development … Moreover, we are strong on the ground in these areas than ever before — right from the sarpanches to the taluka panchayat and the district panchayat, the BJP has won all seats and it will have a direct impact on our Assembly seat results. We are extremely confident.”

Absence of the Gandhis

The Congress has not had a pan-Gujarat tribal leader since former Chief Minister Amarsinh Chaudhary died in 2004. The possible exception is its Vansda MLA Anant Patel in south Gujarat who led a series of rallies against the Par Tapi Narmada (PTN) Yojana, forcing the Centre to scrap it earlier this year. But Anant’s influence is also limited to south Gujarat.

Khedbrahma MLA Ashwin Kotwal was a popular Congress tribal leader but he is now in the BJP. The party’s veteran legislator Anil Joshiyara from Bhiloda died of Covid-related complications in March and his son Kewal is in the ruling party.

A senior Congress leader said the absence of the Gandhis from the campaign would hamper the party’s chances. “The tribal population does look up to the Gandhi family even today,” said the Congress functionary. “So far, we have not heard if Rahul Gandhi or Priyanka ji will arrive to campaign in tribal areas … Last time, Rahul Gandhi’s yatra through the tribal seats and his interaction with students had worked in the party’s favour … (Delhi CM Arvind) Kejriwal has cashed in on Rahul Gandhi’s absence.”

But Anant Patel told The Indian Express, “The tribals of south Gujarat are unhappy with BJP as they have to lose their land for a bullet train, express highway, Saputara to Statute of Unity (SOU) at Kevadiya Highway. The tribals of Navsari, Tapi, Dangs and Surat are unhappy … their anger will reflect in their vote. We also expect the Congress to regain the seats it lost.”

What AAP is doing

The AAP started its campaign for the Adivasi seats on a strong note, announcing a pre-election alliance with the BTP earlier this year. But the coalition fell through as the Kejriwal-led party declared candidates on its own and also took away some of the BTP’s leaders. The AAP has fielded former BTP leader Chaitar Vasava from Dediapada, which compelled incumbent MLA Mahesh Vasava of the BTP to shift to his father Chhotubhai Vasava’s Jhagadia constituency. The BJP has fielded former BTP leader Hitesh Vasava from Jhagadia.

Kejriwal has addressed three rallies in tribal districts, the last being in Chhota Udepur on August 7 where he promised to implement the PESA Act. Last week, Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann held a roadshow in Dahod and Chhota Udepur.

In Nandod, where the Statue of Unity is located, the AAP’s nominee Prafful Vasava, who lost the 2017 elections to the BJP’s Waghodia MLA Madhu Shrivastava, will look to take advantage of rebellions in the BJP and the Congress. The ruling party has fielded Darshana Deshmukh, leading its state Tribal Cell president Harshad Vasava to file nomination papers as an independent. The Congress is also dealing with internal strife after it dropped incumbent MLA PD Vasava and chose Haresh Vasava.

In Chhota Udepur, some locals are confident that the AAP’s Arjun Rathwa, a former schoolteacher, will defeat Mohansinh Rathava’s son Rajendrasinh who has never contested an election before. The Congress has yet to declare its candidate here.

The AAP candidate in Pavi Jetpur in Chhota Udepur district is Radhika Rathwa, the daughter of former Congress MP Amarsinh Rathwa. The unease in the Congress is evident as it has also not yet declared its Pavi Jetpur candidate and incumbent MLA Sukhram Rathva, the Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, was not present at the party’s manifesto launch on Saturday. Rajendrasinh Rathava is Sukhram’s son-in-law.

In Chhota Udeput’s Sankheda seat, the AAP has fielded advocate Ranjan Tadvi to take on incumbent BJP MLA Abesinh Tadvi and former Congress MLA Dhiru Bhil.