Fadnavis and Pawars to Shinde, Uddhav, Patole: A make-or-break for major players in Maharashtra polls

Devendra Fadnavis

The former CM who is the BJP’s main face in the state has a lot to prove after the Lok Sabha election setback that saw the BJP win only nine of the 28 seats it contested (a strike rate poorer than that of ally Shiv Sena). Depending on how many seats the BJP wins out of the 150-plus constituencies it is contesting, Fadnavis will either be further diminished politically, forced to remain a step behind Chief Minister Eknath Shinde in the Mahayuti hierarchy, or he will return to openly calling the shots.

To ensure that the BJP does not repeat the mistakes it made ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, Fadnavis initiated a series of course-correction measures in the last few months, including attempts to consolidate the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) to blunt any Maratha consolidation against the party. The Deputy CM who is from Nagpur and close to the RSS has also helped close any distance that may have existed between the party and its parent organisation. The BJP has the Sangh back playing a central role in its campaign.

For Fadnavis, the biggest challenge is ensuring that the party crosses at least the 100-seat mark so that it can continue remaining the Mahayuti’s fulcrum.

Sharad Pawar

At 84 years old, the former Maharashtra CM is perhaps facing the most important election of his six-decade political career. Five years ago, Pawar came out on top, outmanoeuvring the BJP to break its decades-long alliance with the Shiv Sena. He then shaped the MVA, bringing along the ideologically disparate Sena and Congress, and the alliance came to power.

However, the last two years have been rough for the veteran leader. First, the MVA government was toppled in June 2022 amid the Shiv Sena rebellion. Then, last year, his nephew Ajit Pawar finally pulled the trigger and split the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), taking away the bulk of the party’s legislators and MPs. Since then, Pawar has strategised to rebuild his party, called the NCP (SP), and keep the MVA together. He has extensively travelled across the state, focusing on the party’s core areas of western Maharashtra and Marathwada.

The first signs that Pawar’s efforts were bearing fruit came during the Lok Sabha elections when the NCP (SP) won eight of the 10 seats it contested. In the seat negotiations for the Assembly polls, the NCP (SP) managed to bag 87 seats, more than the 70-75 constituencies it was initially believed to be eyeing.

However, Ajit, though saddled with problems of his own, is not quite diminished yet and will provide Pawar with a tough challenge in the sugar belt of western Maharashtra that has seen a degree of shift in recent weeks. The outcome of this Pawar versus Pawar battle in the region, which has 70 Assembly seats, may determine the outcome of the elections. If Pawar succeeds, he will prove beyond doubt which one is the real NCP.

Ajit Pawar

The challenge his uncle faces is also one that Deputy CM Ajit Pawar is confronted with. This election, the first since he emerged out of Pawar’s shadow, will be a major test of Ajit Pawar’s leadership skills and ability to prove, once and for all, that his NCP is deserving of the party name and symbol.

Despite his upper hand when he broke ranks with Pawar — 41 of the party’s 54 MLAs backed him — Ajit Pawar has failed to press his advantage. In the Lok Sabha elections, he contested only four seats and managed to win one. He also appears to have been left shortchanged in the Assembly seat-sharing talks, getting only 52 seats.

Apart from the larger political battle, the Deputy CM will face a test on his turf Baramati, the hometown of the entire Pawar clan. He has been winning the seat, which his uncle represented before him, since 1991 and faces his nephew Yugendra this time. With his wife Sunetra having lost the Baramati Lok Sabha election to Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule, the Baramati election is all the more important for Ajit Pawar.

Uddhav Thackeray

When Uddhav Thackeray took charge as the Shiv Sena’s working president in 2002-’03, many wrote him off as a misfit in the party’s political milieu. But over the next few years, Uddhav showed why he should not be considered a lightweight as he strengthened his grip and removed his critics such as Narayan Rane and Raj Thackeray.

Though dealt a body blow by the Shinde revolt, Uddhav managed to avert a complete collapse, showing yet again why he cannot be written off. In the Lok Sabha elections, the Shiv Sena (UBT) won nine of the 21 seats it contested, with a strike rate almost equal to Shinde’s party.

Like Pawar, Uddhav now faces a litmus test. At stake is the opportunity to establish he is the real heir to his father Bal Thackeray’s political legacy and not his former lieutenant Shinde. The elections, in short, will be a mandate on the real Sena. The polls will also be crucial as far as Thackeray’s position within the MVA is considered and his chances of remaining in the conversation for the CM’s post if the alliance returns to power.

Eknath Shinde

Thought to be someone who would be a puppet CM acting on the directions of Fadnavis and the BJP, Eknath Shinde has managed to break that image since taking charge of the state two years ago. His party’s performance in the Lok Sabha elections — it won seven of the 15 seats it contested — has strengthened Shinde’s position in the Mahayuti. This is reflected in the seat-sharing arrangement that will see the Shiv Sena contest 80 Assembly constituencies.

The challenge for Shinde is to ensure that not only the Mahayuti returns to power but also that the Shiv Sena expands its electoral base enough for him to continue remaining the alliance’s lynchpin. The target is winning more than 40 seats, which is the number of MLAs he broke away with during his rebellion. The BJP’s central leadership is said to have assured Shinde he will retain his chair if he crosses that mark.

Nana Patole

The outspoken state Congress president has breathed life into the organisation with his brand of aggressive politics that has seen him take on the BJP and the RSS head-on. But Patole also tends to rub his allies and party colleagues the wrong way, as seen during the seat-sharing talks. His tough stand is believed to have irked Uddhav and the Sena (UBT) so much that the Congress was forced to deploy senior leader Balasaheb Thorat during the last stretch of the discussions.

Patole is the party’s OBC face under whose leadership the Congress outshone every other party to win 13 Lok Sabha seats this year. The Assembly elections are the test of his ability to take everyone along and continue the party’s upward swing. Another strong showing for the party will strengthen his hand in the party and the MVA, making it difficult for allies and rivals alike to ignore him.