In race to the finish against AAP in Delhi, a look back at BJP’s hits and misses

The middle class comprises a big chunk of Delhi’s voters, and the BJP is confident that the budgetary proposals have gone down well with the businesses in Delhi that are mostly medium and small and micro enterprises. BJP leaders also point to the Udyam or Micro Enterprise credit card introduced in the Budget.

The other significant group in Delhi for which the Budget holds promise is the salaried class, also largely falling in the mid-income group.

The BJP is hoping that the Budget relief, coupled with general unhappiness among middle-class voters over the AAP governance record on issues such as quality of life, air and water pollution, and infrastructure development, could draw more middle-class voters out to vote.

And that the mix of its track record on “development” at the Centre, its inherent support base in the Capital, its new welfare promises and the belief in “Modi’s guarantee” will draw the BJP enough support across the board to finish ahead of the AAP.

However, not everyone in the party is so sure. “The segment which benefits the most from the tax rebate does not decide elections. Delhi voting may remain dominated by the very poor and those dependent on the welfare schemes of the government,” a party leader said, adding that this holds true for even the New Delhi seat from where Kejriwal is contesting. “The basti (slum) votes decide who wins the constituency… The middle class has never been a deciding factor in Delhi elections,” he said.

And should the BJP get the votes of the poor and low-income groups, and win, it may still require a recalibration by the party, a senior leader said. “Every party in India, be it Leftist, Rightist, centrist or capitalist, now agrees with welfare politics. There is no contradiction in it. The revdi talk is over.”

If the BJP game plan faltered anywhere, it was its campaign against Kejriwal on corruption charges. Despite the AAP supremo’s initial rise as an anti-corruption crusader, it didn’t appear to matter to voters that he had spent time in jail on excise policy scam charges – not proved – or that he had given himself a so-called “Sheesh Mahal” at the CM’s residence.

According to leaders, another aspect where the BJP may find itself falling short of the AAP is in “a face for Delhi”. While the Capital retains faith in Modi’s leadership and his guarantees, as reflected in the BJP’s clean sweep of Delhi again in the Lok Sabha polls last year, it has simultaneously reposed trust in Kejriwal for the state.

In failing to offer an alternative to Kejriwal, with Modi seeking votes in his own name from Delhi’s voters, could the BJP have failed to bridge this gap?