Decode Politics: As stage is set for Naveen Patnaik’s exit, what worked for BJP in Odisha

Odisha also witnessed a saffron surge in the Lok Sabha polls, with the BJP set to win 19 of the 21 seats, leaving one each for the BJD and the Congress.

What helped the BJP turn the tide in Odisha?

Amid talks of a possible alliance with the BJD in the run-up to the general elections, even the BJP cadres in Odisha were confused about the party’s strategy in the state. However, after the seat-sharing talks with the BJD failed, the saffron party tried to build a narrative of “Odia Asmita (pride)”, questioning the growing influence of former IAS officer and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik’s close aide V K Pandian, who is now in the BJD.

The BJP launched an aggressive campaign for around a month, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi leading from the front. Senior party leaders such as Union Home Minister Amit Shah, BJP’s national president J P Nadda and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, known for his fiery and communal speeches, addressed several rallies in the state ahead of the polls.

In his first public meeting on May 6 at Berhampur, PM Modi set the tone by claiming that a BJP CM will take oath in Odisha on June 10.

What did the BJP do differently this time?

Knowing well that targeting CM Naveen Patnaik directly may backfire for the BJP — as happened in 2019 when the party won only 23 Assembly seats — the saffron party’s entire campaign revolved around Pandian and his Tamil origin. From the feedback it gathered from different sources, the party sensed an anger against Pandian among the people.

To target the Tamil Nadu-born former IAS officer, the BJP harped on issues such as the “missing” keys of the Ratna Bhandar at Puri’s Jagannath Temple and the reins of power in the state being in the “hands of an outsider”.

In the last leg of the poll campaign, though the Prime Minister made personal remarks on Naveen questioning his “deteriorating health condition”, he also hinted at a conspiracy and took a dig at Pandian claiming he was involved in the conspiracy.

Where did the BJD go wrong?

The BJD’s success in Odisha over the years is attributed to the “charismatic leadership” of CM Naveen Patnaik, his “clean image” and perceived “good governance”. Post-Covid-19 pandemic, the 77-year-old CM, who was eying for a sixth straight term in office, had largely confined himself to Naveen Niwas, his residence. He had curtailed his public appearances.

There came Pandian’s emergence both in the corridors of power and in the BJD circle, which didn’t go down well with a large section of people, especially the informed voters.

Naveen did not travel much, maybe because of his “age factor” and “health issues”, while Pandian drove the BJD’s campaign singlehandedly by making helicopter tours to almost 147 Assembly constituencies. Wherever Naveen went, he limited his election speech to asking a few questions about the popular schemes of his government.

The party announced the names of many senior leaders as star campaigners, but they were conspicuous by their absence from the campaign. BJD insiders said Pandian’s style of campaign might have backfired for the party.

What hurt Naveen the most?

The CM, it seems, failed to maintain his image of a “non-corrupt” leader. There was palpable anger among the people over “petty corruption” at the block, tehsil and police station level. Despite people liking Naveen and his style of governance, they were clearly upset with local BJD leaders “demanding bribes” for works like granting a house under the rural housing scheme, enrolling name in old age schemes or issuing a ration card.

Did BJD falter in candidate selection?

The BJD’s ticket distribution was a big blunder; the party repeated most of its MLAs despite strong anti-incumbency against them on the ground. Many MLAs, who were facing serious corruption charges, were repeated, and some of the popular legislators like Samir Ranjan Dash (Nimapara) and Amar Prasad Satpathy (Barachana) were denied tickets. While Dash joined the BJP, Satpathy remained silent; their absence from the party’s campaign cost the BJD dearly in the two seats. BJP candidates Amar Kumar Nayak and Pravati Parida won the Barachana and Nimapara seats respectively.

In some cases where the BJD denied tickets to the sitting MLAs, it fielded their close relatives on the seats, upsetting the second line of leaders who were eying the party ticket.

Did the Congress hurt the BJD’s prospects?

In the past, the BJD had always taken advantage of a triangular contest, with the Congress cutting into the BJP’s vote share in the state. However, this time it was largely a bipolar contest between the BJD and the BJP as the Congress was nowhere in the picture on most seats. The bipolar contest favoured the BJP in building a narrative against the incumbent BJD and in encashing from the situation.