Decode Politics: In Gujarat, why AAP is losing steam after quick rise

The AAP tasted its first electoral success in Gujarat in February 2021 when, riding on the Patidar vote, it won 27 out of 120 seats in the Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC) to become the principal Opposition there, as the Congress failed to win a single seat.

In the 2022 Assembly elections, the AAP posted an impressive vote share and won five seats, which also fetched the AAP its national party status.

The manoeuvrings in the state AAP started immediately after the Assembly elections. Of the five seats it had won, two were wrested from the BJP — Botad (where Umesh Makwana won) and Gariadhar (Sudhir Vaghani). Two others were from the Congress — Visavadar (Bhupendra Bhayani) and Jamjodhpur (Hemant Ahir). The last was Dediapada seat, on which Chaitar Vasava quit the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) to win on the AAP ticket.

Within days of his win, Bhayani began giving indications that he could join the BJP. Though he remained with the AAP, it proved to be a temporary delay. A year later, he tendered his resignation to the Speaker on December 13 and told the media that he was going to join the BJP.

What has changed for AAP now?

Chaitar Vasava, a tribal leader, who has already announced his wish to contest from the Bharuch Lok Sabha seat held by BJP MP Mansukh Vasava for six terms, is now in police custody for allegedly threatening and assaulting forest officials. His wife and personal assistant have also been arrested in the same case, lodged a month back.

Already, AAP supremo and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh, face a defamation case before an Ahmedabad court, for seeking proof of PM Modi’s university degrees from Gujarat University, slapped by GU registrar Piyush Patel. The university alleges that Kejriwal had made defamatory utterances at a press conference on April 1, followed by Singh on April 2 of this year, in the aftermath of the High Court setting aside an order of the Central Information Commission, directing the university to “search for information” regarding the PM’s educational degrees.

The AAP’s Gujarat chief Isudan Gadhvi, the party’s CM face in 2022, has already returned to TV as an anchor after he lost, and has launched his show “Shankhnaad”. The party’s other key face, Gopal Italia, who lost the elections from Surat, has begun practising as a lawyer, and is defending Vasava in his case.

While former Congress MLA from Rajkot, Indranil Rajguru had quit as the national joint secretary of AAP to return to the Congress ahead of the 2022 Assembly polls, the party has seen four of its 15 vice-presidents resign to join the Congress since June this year — Bhema Chaudhary, Vasram Sagathiya, Arjun Rathwa and Manoj Bhuptani. The AAP’s state secretary Haresh Kothari, too, joined the Congress in July, while former Narmada district chief Dharamwendra Gohil also defected to the Congress.

Can AAP survive?

Italia feels the party will see through these hurdles. He said, “Since the Assembly elections, many leaders have defected, but this doesn’t mean the AAP has reduced in size or number. We are struggling, but that is because we are a new party with a fresh ideology, and issues of typical political parties don’t apply to us… Of course, we have the BJP trying to build pressure on us by booking our people in false cases, and using other nefarious tactics, as they are in power. But we have a party of workers who are willing to fight, and we’ll continue to do so.”

BJP sources didn’t rule out the possibility of more resignations by the AAP MLAs. A BJP leader said, “Out of five AAP MLAs elected in 2022, three had a BJP background. So, it’s possible there will be more resignations.”

However, AAP deputy leader in the Gujarat Assembly, Umesh Makwana, has refuted talks of more resignations and said all four will continue to raise their voice as Opposition in the Assembly.

What is BJP’s game plan?

Commenting on the ongoing political developments relating to the AAP, a senior BJP office-bearer said, “The BJP’s game plan, it looks, is not to have any strong Opposition voice. Weaker Opposition is better.”

The office bearer added, “Also, our party does not want to take a chance with any Lok Sabha constituency. We want to win all 26 seats with handsome margins. Bhayani’s Assembly seat is in the Junagadh Lok Sabha constituency. His resignation makes the BJP safer on the seat.”

A senior BJP leader admitted that the AAP could have been a stronger Opposition than the Congress. The leader says, “AAP is a new entrant in Gujarat politics. A lot of the people, who are looking for change, would opt for it, given Kejriwal’s image… Even in the Assembly polls, AAP ended in second position on many seats, while the Congress weakened, because the party also had ground workers that the Congress lacked. The BJP does not treat any budding Opposition party as weak.”

What is salience of Chaitar Vasava?

Mansukh Vasava, the BJP MP from the unreserved Bharuch Lok Sabha seat, who is continuously engaged in a political duel with Chaitar, has recently alleged that his own party leaders have been “trying to get Chaitar into the BJP”, as part of an ongoing factional rivalry in the Bharuch constituency. However, Mansukh having served six terms, the BJP could be in the mood to replace him, in which case it would need an alternative tribal face.

A senior BJP leader indicated why his party may be making efforts to get Chaitar to its fold. “There is no denying that Chaitar has a mass appeal among tribals. He also has a strong support base not just in Dediapada and Gujarat, but also in Maharashtra, MP and Rajasthan… His strength lies in the fact that he is young and a powerful orator — the kind of leader the BJP has been looking for to be its face in the tribal belt. Mansukh Vasava may have won the last Lok Sabha polls by over 1.5 lakh votes, but he is over 70 years of age. None of the other tribal leaders in the party are good orators, so the BJP feels Chaitar could be an asset. He is still raw, so his stints in the BTP or AAP won’t count much as major ideological affiliations.”

In Dediapada, a constituency reserved for tribals in the Narmada district, which is part of the Bharuch Lok Sabha seat, Chaitar is considered the most influential AAP leader in Gujarat. Following the FIR against him on November 2, he evaded arrest for over six weeks, and surrendered before police on Thursday in the presence of all top state AAP leaders and thousands of his supporters.

Chaitar has alleged that he was “trapped” in the case by the ruling BJP after he did not accept the party’s “enticement”. In his speech to supporters before his arrest, he claimed, “I did not accept (the offers), hence I’m being trapped and harassed along with my family.”