After Dalit ‘shift’ to MVA, Mahayuti rejigs game plan, steps up outreach to smaller SC groups

The fears of possible changes to the Constitution spurred voter mobilisation within the Dalit community, resulting in the MVA securing a lead in 51 of the 88 Assembly segments where Dalits represent over 15% of the electorate.

While the political discourse regarding social justice and protection of constitutional rights continue to find resonance among Dalits in the run-up to the November 20 state Assembly elections, the Eknath Shinde-Devendra Fadnavis dispensation seems to be actively working to reach out to the Dalit community.

Their fresh strategy includes offering various schemes for the welfare of Dalits besides initiating discussions on the sub-classification of the Scheduled Castes (SCs), which many view as an attempt to attract Dalit voters not affiliated to the Ambedkarite movement.

Dalit factor

Dalits play a pivotal role in Maharashtra politics. According to the 2011 Census, the SCs account for about 12% of the state’s population encompassing over 59 distinct castes. Contrary to the perception of the Dalit community as a monolith, it is significantly diverse. Among various SC groups, the followers of the Ambedkarite movement, particularly Mahars, are a dominant player. The Mahar community converted to Buddhism under B R Ambedkar’s influence, seeking a rejection of caste discrimination and a commitment to social equality. Neo-Buddhists (Mahars) make up nearly 40% of the Dalit population, and their political mobilisation centred on social justice and empowerment often positions them in opposition to the parties like the BJP and the erstwhile undivided Shiv Sena.

Historically, the BJP has found support among smaller Dalit groups, such as Matangs, which highlights the diversity in political affiliations within the SCs. This complexity is reflected in various polls: in the 2019 Assembly elections, of the 88 Assembly seats with significant Dalit voters, the BJP and its then ally Sena, got 46 seats as against 33 seats won by the Congress-NCP alliance.

However, a substantial shift in the Dalit votes was seen during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when the MVA alliance led in 51 of these seats as compared to the Mahayuti’s 32. The MVA pulled off this performance despite the presence of another contender, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) led by Prakash Ambedkar, the grandson of B R Ambedkar, which drew a blank.

“In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Ambedkarite supporters united behind the MVA with a clear objective: to defeat the BJP, which they perceive as representing an ideology fundamentally at odds with Dr. Ambedkar’s vision for India. Fears of potential changes to the Constitution— especially concerning reservations and rights for marginalised communities — mobilised Ambedkarites to align with parties they believed would safeguard their interests. This coalition significantly contributed to the MVA’s success. The resonance of these issues remains potent, and I expect a similar voting strategy among Ambedkarites in the upcoming Assembly elections,” said political analyst Madhu Kamble.

Dalits and BJP

In the wake of its setback in the Lok Sabha elections, the incumbent Mahayuti coalition appears to be sharpening its focus on the Dalit groups that remain outside the influence of the Ambedkarite movement. This strategy targets the more backward Matang community, which, unlike Ambedkarites, continues to maintain closer ties with the Hindu cultural practices.

Matangs face severe marginalisation, impacting their access to education and employment opportunities compared to their Ambedkarite counterparts, who tend to be more educated and hold a relatively larger share of government jobs. While initiatives like the financial support under the Maharashtra government’s Ladki Bahin Yojana – which gives Rs 1,500 monthly allowance to 2.5 crore underprivileged women – are envisaged to benefit many economically disadvantaged communities, including Matangs, the BJP’s openness to sub-classification within the SCs signals a bid to reach out to the non-Ambedkarite Dalit groups. The sub-classification involves a quota within quota within SCs to address disparities and ensure a fairer distribution of benefits, such as reservations in education and employment, particularly where Ambedkarites are perceived to dominate the quota benefits.

In a landmark judgment in August, the Supreme Court allowed the states to sub-classify the SCs / STs (Scheduled Tribes) to ensure grant of quota to more backward castes in these groups.

A day before the Election Commission announced the polls in the state, the Mahayuti government, on October 15, issued a resolution, establishing a one-member committee chaired by a retired high court judge Anant Badar to examine the issue of the SC sub-classification.

“The political landscape among Dalit voters is fluid. The more assertive and politically conscious Ambedkarites are firmly opposed to the BJP, while a significant portion of the Dalit community may respond to the incentives being offered,” said Siddhant Waghmare, a political activist and Dalit entrepreneur from Aurangabad. “Whether the BJP can sway enough of these non-Ambedkarite Dalit votes will ultimately determine the outcome of this election.”

Despite the Ambedkarite movement’s opposition to the right-wing ideologies, the BJP has been making inroads into the Dalit groups.

In Ramabai Nagar, a Dalit stronghold in Mumbai, some BJP workers point to the community’s support for the party. “In light of the Assembly elections, people are starting to see through the misleading narratives propagated during the Lok Sabha elections regarding reservations and constitutional issues. They recognise which representatives genuinely advocate their interests and which ones view them merely as a vote bank,” said Sanghadeep Kedare, a local BJP worker.

While the BJP intensifies its efforts to woo Dalits, the MVA —particularly the state Congress leadership — has struggled to address perceptions of their neglect in the past.

“The perspectives of young Dalit voters toward the MVA, especially the Congress, are shaped by current socio-economic realities. To resonate with these voters, the MVA must demonstrate a genuine commitment to their rights and engage with their economic and political aspirations. Currently, there’s a lack of visible engagement from the MVA with the Dalit community, which could impact the upcoming elections,” warned Pramod Sakhare, an activist from Nashik.