As seat-sharing negotiations hit a bumpy road with Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) partners in Maharashtra, the Congress may now stay away from the Uttar Pradesh Assembly bypolls as it does not want to contest the two seats that its INDIA bloc ally Samajwadi Party (SP) is offering, citing “unfavourable caste equations”. The Congress has alleged the SP did not follow “alliance dharma” and unilaterally announced candidates for seven of the nine seats where bypolls will be held on November 13. Congress insiders claimed the party might refuse to contest Khair and Ghaziabad. “Why will we contest seats where the caste equations do not favour us? We know it will be an uphill task for any party to defeat the BJP in these two seats. We would rather not contest the bypolls,” a senior Congress leader said. In response, the SP has accused the Congress of “overreaching” by demanding seats such as Meerapur and Phulpur and reminded its ally of its “overconfidence” in Haryana. “On what basis are they claiming these seats? They did not leave a single seat for us in Haryana, where they had a chance of forming the government. The SP is the principal Opposition in Uttar Pradesh and the Congress will have to work accordingly,” a senior SP leader said. Of the nine seats going to the bypolls, the SP won five – Sisamau, Katehari, Kundarki and Karhal – while the BJP won three (Khair, Phulpur and Ghaziabad) in the 2022 Assembly polls. The NISHAD Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) won two (Manjhawan and Meerapur, respectively). According to estimates, around 80,000 Dalits, 60,000 Brahmins, 40,000 Baniyas, 35,000 Muslims and 20,000 Thakurs make up the electorate in Ghaziabad. With the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) contesting the election, the Congress is not confident of Dalit votes consolidating in its favour while the numerically dominant Brahmin and Baniya communities, along with Thakurs, are seen to be core BJP voters. The party also feels the number of Muslims in Ghaziabad is not enough to alter the electoral outcome in its favour. In Khair, with Jats rallying behind the RLD, an NDA ally, and the BSP likely to cut into Dalit votes, the Congress is not optimistic about winning the seat that has around 1 lakh Jats and around 55,000 Dalits. The Congress was dealt a blow a day after its “unexpected” defeat in Haryana, as the SP on October 9, in the middle of seat-sharing talks, went ahead and announced six candidates for the bypolls. Subsequently, it also announced its seventh candidate. As the two allies continue to bicker, their leadership is confident that top leaders such as Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav who have a “great understanding”, will take the final call. “Our main objective is to end the jungle raj in the state and we are working towards it. I am sure the top leadership will reach an understanding soon,” said Uttar Pradesh Congress chief Ajay Rai. SP national spokesperson Faraz Uddin Kidwai echoed Rai’s views. “Seat-sharing is a complex process and there is still time for the nomination deadline. We are confident that the two parties will contest the bypolls together,” he said. The last day for filing nominations for the bypolls is October 25.
