BJP leaves Cong far behind in Rajasthan, only 9 of Gehlot’s 26 ministers win

Gehlot termed the results “surprising”, saying he had hoped that the party would win on the basis of his government’s schemes, and that the public would teach the BJP “a lesson for murdering democracy”.

“We made historic laws and these were discussed across the country. We had such wonderful schemes and were hoping that on the basis of these schemes, our promises for the future, and the laws, we would form the government. But it wasn’t so. We will look at what the causes were,” Gehlot said, after it became clear that the Congress was on its way out.

Gehlot, who resigned in the evening, also suggested that the BJP gained from polarisation, saying: “The kind of language they used was to provoke, to stoke tensions and riots, repeatedly taking Kanhaiya Lal’s name… they didn’t have any issue,” he said.

Gehlot suggested that polarisation could be behind the party’s electoral losses in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh too, since the Congress was heading for “a one-sided win” in these states but lost.

However, Gehlot, who insisted on retaining most of the MLAs, will find it harder to wish away the results with such reasoning alone.

The only three Cabinet ministers who won besides him were Shanti Dhariwal, Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya and Tikaram Jully; the heavyweights who lost included ministers B D Kalla, Ramlal Jat, Vishvendra Singh, Pratap Singh Khachariyawas, Mamta Bhupesh, as well as Assembly Speaker C P Joshi and Osian MLA Divya Maderna.

In contrast, five sitting Ministers of State won, while four lost.

BJP leader Vasundhara Raje, who has been quietly watching as the party high command has tried to sideline her over the last four-five years, was expectedly careful on Sunday and praised the party’s top leadership for the Rajasthan win.

She called it a victory of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s guarantees, of Amit Shah’s strategy, and J P Nadda’s able leadership.

The BJP too had some surprise losses, in Leader of Opposition Rajendra Rathore from Taranagar, former state president Satish Poonia from Amer, and BJP spokesperson Ramlal Sharma from Chomu, among others.

Smaller parties, which were hoping to be kingmakers, barely made a mark. BSP state president Bhagwan Singh Baba had said that in case of a hung verdict, the party would “conditionally” support that side which promised to make all of its MLAs ministers. The BSP eventually won only 2 seats – Sadulpur and Bari.

In 2008 and in 2018, the BSP had won 6 seats each, offered “unconditional support” to the Gehlot-led Congress government, but seen all its MLAs merge with the Congress.

The Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) had tied up with the Aazad Samaj Party (ASP) and was hoping to benefit from the Jat-Dalit combination. However, the RLP won just 1 seat, that of its chief, Hanuman Beniwal, down from 3 seats earlier, and the ASP none.

The tribal parties of the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) and Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) too were hoping to make significant gains in the tribal districts in the Mewar region and to leverage that to bargain for more say in the upcoming government. While the BAP won 3, the BTP did not get any; in 2018, the BTP had won two seats.

However, with final results still coming in, smaller parties and Independents clearly damaged both the Congress and the BJP in several seats.

On Sunday, Gehlot said it was wrong to see anti-incumbency against Congress MLAs as the reason for the defeat. “The talk of bringing in new faces, such a demand was not there in Madhya Pradesh or Chhattisgarh, but we lost elections there too. So it is incorrect to say that we would have won with new faces. Second, we all like new faces, but if there was anti-incumbency against someone in the surveys, then we had no (other) option (in that seat),” Gehlot said.

Another issue that seems to have cost the Congress is the sidelining of Sachin Pilot, with the BJP making inroads in his stronghold of Eastern Rajasthan. Pilot himself had skipped the launch of the party’s showpiece Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project campaign on October 16, citing a Territorial Army Examination.

The anger of the Gujjars over the snubs to Pilot since 2018 is seen to be behind the defeat of some ministers, including Parsadi Lal, Ramesh Meena, and Mamta Bhupesh. Moreover, MLAs Danish Abrar from Sawai Madhopur, Prashant Bairwa from Niwai, who were considered Pilot camp leaders but had switched sides to Gehlot during Pilot’s 2020 rebellion, also lost their seats. O P Hudla, a tribal candidate, lost from Mahuwa.

The BJP bet big on identity politics, making the election polarised in several seats.

Pokaran and Tijara witnessed the second and third highest voting in the state, at 87.79 % and 86.11 % voting, respectively. In Pokaran, Mahant Pratapuri of the BJP won against the sitting Cabinet minister for Minority Affairs, Shale Mohammad, while in Tijara, Alwar MP Mahant Balaknath defeated Imran Khan.

In Jaipur’s Hawa Mahal, Balmukundacharya edged out R R Tiwari of the Congress. A fourth “mahant” who won was former minister Otaram Dewasi, who defeated CM Gehlot’s advisor Sanyam Lodha from Sirohi.

Udaipur, which had witnessed the brutal killing of tailor Kanhaiya Lal last year, was retained by the BJP, with Tarachand Jain defeating Congress national spokesperson Gourav Vallabh.

Besides, the BJP raised the issue of ‘red diary’, apparently containing damning details regarding Congress leaders. Rajendra Gudha, who was removed as Congress minister after he first raised the issue, contested as a Shiv Sena candidate, but ended third in Udaipurwati.

Similarly, the BJP also latched on to the issue of exam paper leaks and unemployment. While it did resonate with the youth statewide, the face of the campaign against this, as well as the anger against delay in government recruitments, Upen Yadav, who was inducted in the BJP days ahead of nominations, too stood third.