THE BJP MAY have fallen below the majority mark at the Centre, making it more dependent on its allies. However, after Maharashtra, where the BJP put the Shiv Sena and NCP far behind, the party appears set to steal a march over ally JD(U) in elections to the Bihar Assembly – in a way, retaining the power balance in the BJP’s favour. In 2020, despite the JD(U) winning just 48 constituencies to the BJP’s 84, the BJP had conceded the Chief Minister’s chair to Nitish Kumar. The uneasiness that resulted was one of the reasons behind Nitish switching sides to the Mahagathbandhan, before returning to the BJP again ahead of the last Lok Sabha elections. Given this recent memory, even if the BJP lets Nitish be the face of the alliance, there could be conditions attached if the seat tallies are similar to 2020. The BJP has additional bargaining power in the form of ally Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) (in 2020, the understanding between the BJP and LJP-RV was covert). The JD(U) would be taking its cue from Maharashtra, where elections in November last year put the BJP in a commanding position compared to its allies, at 132 of the total 288 seats. The Shiv Sena, whose Eknath Shinde held the CM post going into the elections, tried to hold out seeking the same again. But the BJP dug its heels in. Given that the BJP had near-majority on its own, apart from the support of 41 MLAs of the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, Shinde finally relented. However, equations within the Mahayuti remain unsettled. Shinde has repeatedly skipped meetings called by CM Devendra Fadnavis while the Fadnavis government has raised questions about some of the schemes introduced when Shinde was the CM, and ensured that Fadnavis has the final word on the selection of personal secretaries and officers on special duty of ministers. The two parties have also sparred over the guardian minister posts in Nashik and Raigad. A Shiv Sena leader said: “The CM calls Sena ministers directly to his room for discussions, which has not gone down well.” Shinde is the only mass leader in Maharashtra, the leader argued, and the BJP could not ignore him. However, the party is unlikely to rock the boat, while expecting the central leadership “that backs Shinde” to intervene. “For the BJP, it’s a win-win situation. Ajit Pawar is a great manager – he can manage things smoothly for the BJP in Maharashtra,” the leader said, adding that Shinde’s hands were tied in comparison as he has been a CM and the face of the government. Coming to Bihar, the JD(U)’s 12 MPs are crucial for the BJP at the Centre. However, when it comes to the state, it is a different story, with the BJP giving one glimpse of how it can step up the ante with its selection for the seven new ministers inducted recently. The seven include a Kurmi leader and a Kushwaha face – both communities seen as Nitish’s support base. While BJP leaders point out that the party is well within its rights to choose the faces it wants for the posts falling in its share, they admit it helped underline the power equations within the NDA ahead of seat-sharing discussions as well as strategy planning for the Assembly polls. Touching the JD(U)’s raw nerve, the Opposition has started claiming that the BJP has hijacked the party, with Nitish reduced to a mask. Rumours about the CM’s health also keep circulating, adding to the JD(U)’s nervousness. Like in Maharashtra, where both the Sena and NCP filled the Maratha vote gap for the BJP, the JD(U) too serves a crucial purpose because of its support base – meaning that there will be no jettisoning of the alliance by the BJP. Even those allies in Bihar who are closer to the BJP than the JD(U) stress on keeping Nitish within the umbrella. As per some sources, this may mean retaining Nitish as CM at least for a while, if the NDA wins. Incidentally, calls have started growing from the JD(U) side for polls to be fought with Nitish as the CM face.
