In Bihar’s ‘Red land’, CPM back in LS poll race after 30 years, NDA’s lone Muslim MP now with it

In Khagaria, which goes to polls on May 7 in the third phase, the battle is between the CPI(M)’s Sanjay Kumar and the Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) candidate Rajesh Verma. Apart from local issues, Kumar, who is from the OBC Kushwaha community, is banking on support from the Muslims and Yadavs, the RJD’s traditional M-Y vote bank. The aim of the Mahagathbandhan here is to get a major chunk of the votes of Kushwahas, the third-most populous group in the constituency. If the CPI(M) receives 50-60% of the community’s support, the formidable M-Y-K social coalition will be enough to push Kumar past the finish line. Of Khagaria’s approximately 18 lakh voters, an estimated three lakh are Muslims, followed by 2.5 lakh Yadav voters, and a lakh each from the Kushwaha and Mallah communities. Mallahs are categorised as an Extremely Backward Class (EBC).

The CPI(M) is in the fray in Khagaria, contesting a parliamentary election in the state for the first time since 1991 and the CPI is attempting to win neighbouring Begusarai that was once referred to as the “Leningrad of Bihar” because of its active Communist movement from the late 1950s to the late 1990s.

Fighting in Kumar’s corner and expected to bring in the Muslim vote is incumbent MP Choudhary Mehboob Ali Kaiser, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) lone Muslim parliamentarian in Bihar who joined the RJD last week after the LJP (Ram Vilas) denied him the ticket. “My decision to join the campaign has added more strength to the contest. There is a sense of hurt among fellow Muslims over the ticket being denied to me, defeating the NDA is the only motto now,” said the two-time Khagaria MP.

Another factor that could work in Kumar’s favour is Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) leader Mukesh Sahani who has joined forces with the Mahagathbandhan. Sahani is a Mallah leader and is expected to mobilise his community’s votes.

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, the 58-year-old Kumar, whose father Yogendra Singh was Khagaria Sadar MLA from 2000 to 2005, is raising local issues as well as bigger issues such as the “threat to the Constitution and democracy”. He recently ran a campaign to raise the monthly honorarium that mid-day meal cooks receive. “Migration and floods are the biggest problems of the people in Khagaria. If I am elected, I will look into these issues besides taking up farmers’ problems,“ Kumar said recently at an interaction near the village of Kosi.

The LJP strategy

But what could work in the LJP candidate’s favour is the counter-polarisation of the NDA’s EBC and non-Yadav and non-Kushwaha OBC votes along with the support of Dalits, the LJP’s traditional support base. The Narendra Modi government’s free ration scheme is popular among poor people in the region and may end up being a factor that could tilt the contest in the favour of Verma, a former mayor of Bhagalpur who is from the OBC Vaishya community.

Though his rivals have tried to label him an outsider, Verma has paid no attention to it and is relying on the Narendra Modi factor to sail through the contest. “Narendra Modi alone is the factor everywhere. Let my opponents work out social arithmetic, it is ‘labharthi (welfare)’ schemes and the personality of Modi that will weigh heavily against my opponents.”

In the town of Beldour, about an hour away from Khagaria town, farmer Rakesh Mandal, 42, said, “In the past three elections, the NDA has won despite a huge M-Y factor. There is surely a tough contest, the Narendra Modi factor must not be overlooked. In Khagaria, Modi voters could be silent.”

Ravinesh Singh, a graduate who works at a small firm in Khagaria, said, “Both candidates have their way of selling us dreams. While the CPI(M) is talking about farmers, the LJP has been talking about how the country can progress even more under Modi. But our question is who will get the people of Khagaria more jobs? With Khagaria and the adjoining belts producing so much maize, there should be talk of starch, ethanol and chicken feed industries.”