Beyond Patna, voices of discontent but key to Opp success: can Tejashwi widen RJD’s tent, bring them in?

Then, there is the missing “factory” that comes up in almost every conversation with voters, irrespective of caste and class, the abysmal lack of jobs in the state, which means that the young of Bihar must travel far and wide, away from their homes, in search of livelihoods and opportunities.

Leap of faith: Tejashwi’s tent, Kishor ‘on the mobile’

But, in the end, the election outcome could hinge on this: To what extent is the Opposition’s main face, RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav, straitjacketed by caste, and seen to be so? How much political room has he carved out around himself and his party, to forge the wider solidarities that could make it possible for the evident discontents against a 20-year incumbent, across castes, to gather around him?

Caste is a vivid lived reality on the ground in Bihar. All parties and players have invoked it not only to address and mitigate its inequalities, but also, and more, to entrench it as a convenient organising principle and fixed mobilisational category. It has helped them to evade the hard labour of politics of constructing the fluid communities that can demand accountability. But while the figure of Tejashwi Yadav is seen to be circumscribed by caste — and this represents his electoral challenge of broadening his appeal — the Nitish-Modi led NDA is not seen to be as defined by its caste calculus, even though it plays the caste game equally.

In this election, the leap of faith that is required for the voter, then, may not be for choosing the new player, Prashant Kishor. On the road from Patna to Sitamarhi, one thing seems clear: he and his party, Jan Suraaj, are seen and heard, but not really in the electoral reckoning. He is too new, too untested, people say, has no known “janadhaar” or grip, or is “only on the mobile”. It doesn’t help him that in many constituencies, the candidate who was seen to work for Jan Suraaj was replaced by a relative newcomer at the last minute, as in Muzaffarpur, or that ripples have also been set off by the candidates, as in Sitamarhi, who have withdrawn from the field. By all accounts, the real leap of faith that will be required in this election will be of the non-Yadav and non-Muslim voters for Tejashwi.

The RJD’s core support base is still largely unshaken, among Yadavs more than among Muslims. That consolidation is its strength, but also, in order to win, the boundary it needs to cross convincingly.

In Himmatpur village of Tejashwi’s constituency of Raghopur, a group of voters talk about increasing corruption or ghuskhori, and the Indira awas (housing scheme) and flood relief that hasn’t reached. They express cynicism about all governments, whichever the ruling party. But, the bottomline is, says Ajay Rai, “Tejashwi gets our vote, whether he wins or loses”. Here, Tejashwi is projected as the young and forward-looking leader who talks about jobs, but it is clear that he draws heavily on the political capital built by his father. In Rustampur village, Kapil Dev Rai, a farmer, puts it simply: “Lalu gave Yadavs bahumat (a say)”.

Among Muslims, though, consolidation for the RJD is tinged with bitterness. In Sumera chowk, Muzaffarpur, Javed Alam, who has a business of motorcycle spare parts, says: “With about 18 per cent population in Bihar, Muslims have got only 18 tickets from the RJD, while Yadavs, with less population share have got more than 50. Mukesh Sahani’s VIP party has got 15 seats and the promise of deputy CM-ship even though he can claim to represent only about 2 per cent of the population”. There is talk of how the RJD has used the Muslim vote, and denied the community bhagidari or participation in terms of representation and power-sharing.

In the Muslim locality of Mehsaul in Sitamarhi town, they talk of the “kaala kanoon” or the Waqf law as a decisive factor in making the choice between Lalu’s party and Nitish. “Today, the Narendra Modi government is interfering in my property, tomorrow it will interfere in yours”, says Abdul Rahman, an autorickshaw driver, who says he earlier voted for Nitish. “Why are our masjids touched? Vikas bahut kiya hai (this government has done development), par hamaara haq nahi mil raha hai (we are not getting our rights)”, says Phulbabu, a first-time voter. Mohammad Bikau, a driver, who also supported Nitish earlier, says: “Ab man toot gaya hai (we are heartbroken). It is our majboori (optionlessness) that we have to vote RJD… hamaara koi neta nahi hai (we don’t have a leader of our own). We are angrier with the Waqf law than with the RJD”.

Outside the Yadav cluster and the Muslim locality, however, lies the question the answer to which is most likely to shape this election’s outcome: Has the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan been able to rally anti-incumbency sentiment among other backward groups — non-Yadav OBCs, SCs and Extremely Backward Classes, and especially the Mallahs, with a party that claims to speak for them, the VIP, getting pride of place in the Opposition alliance? (Among forward castes, the BJP seems to enjoy almost as staunch a support as the RJD does among Yadavs and Muslims —local businessmen, all upper caste, gathered in a temple in Sitamarhi, say in unison that the only change they want is for the BJP to win a majority in Bihar and become more like Yogi Adityanath’s “bulldozer party” in UP).

Change vs burden of Lalu’s legacy

Among non-Yadav backward groups, the visible backlash against the prohibition policy, tug of caste ties with the local Mahagathbandhan candidate, or disaffection with the local NDA candidate, may work for the Opposition alliance. But ranged against it is a still-tangible apprehension about the RJD — that it is a party of, by and for Yadavs.

In these groups, the legacy of the Lalu years, unlike in the Yadavs and Muslims, is predominantly negative, evoking fears of arbitrariness and favouritism and impunity for one community, despite the Tejashwi-led RJD’s claims to becoming an “A to Z”, not just “M-Y”, party.

Overlaying the persistent spectres of the return of “Yadav raj” is the Nitish-Modi combine’s multi-layered appeal, which it hopes will puncture and defang anti-incumbency. This variegated appeal consists of: BJP’s Hindutva, Modi’s rations, Modi’s appeal to a nationalism that encompasses the larger wholes of nation or “desh”, and “videsh”, not just region or “pradesh”, Nitish’s successes on the law and order front, and his government’s array of women-centric schemes. These are apart from the NDA’s own explicit caste-centric strategies.

In the Sahu (lower OBC) mohalla in Sitamarhi town, Pankaj Shah, a student, says: “If Yadavs come to power, they will swagger around in large vehicles again, as they did in the past…” Lallan Kumar says, “We need rojgar not free ration in Bihar. The money that has been given to women under the Mahila Rojgar Yojana could have been used to make universities and hospitals, paisa baantne se kya hoga (of what use is distributing money?) … But we don’t want to return to the old days of chori-rangdaari (lawlessness)”.

In any case, “Even if I vote for the RJD, they will not believe me”, says Ram Balak Shah — he is referring to the congealed common sense, that Tejashwi’s RJD has not done enough to erase, that non-Yadav backward groups are not natural supporters of the RJD. Shiv Nath Shah, a daily wage labourer, is the risk-averse voter who has little and feels he cannot jeopardise it: “Who knows if a new person comes, whether or not we will get more. It could be less”.

In village Nawada in Muzaffarpur district, a group of men complain about police excesses under cover of enforcing prohibition, and bribes of Rs 50,000 and more that the invariably poor victims must give. “The poor go to jail, while the liquor mafia fattens outside”, says Harishchander Sahni. When it comes to the vote, however, some express the concern that “The Muslims will get the upper hand again, if Tejashwi comes”. They will vote for Nitish this time despite his prohibition policy, they say, because of Modi.

In the Mallah basti of Kharauna Dih village, Alarvinder Sahani was one of the many who were put in jail because of sharaab-bandi. “My wife has got Rs 10,000 under the Mahila Rojgar Yojana, she will vote for Nitish. But not me. I will vote for the RJD’s Mahagathbandhan, which also has the VIP”. “Jiska khayenge, ussi ko denge (we will support the one who helps us)”, says his wife, Rangeela Devi, quietly but emphatically.

In Aurai, Ramkishan Baitha, who belongs to the Mahadalit caste of Dhobi, says that what counts for him is that “even if I don’t give to Modi-Nitish, others will”. He counts out the reasons for the NDA’s perceived winnability — “the women will give because of the election-eve Rs 10,000 cash transfer, old people will give because of the increase in pension from Rs 400 to Rs 1100…”

The Tejashwi-led Mahagathbandhan starts with a still robust Muslim-Yadav base, but to win the election, it needs to be seen to pitch a wider tent, harness the evident signs of anti-incumbency across castes, and counter the NDA’s more layered appeal.

Going by the voices on the road from Patna to Sitamarhi, that’s the arduous task for the RJD — Lalu Prasad built it and gave it its distinctive identity, and now the party needs to sidestep his shadow and meet the demands of a new political moment on it.