In last Bengal phase, both TMC and BJP see a common threat: a rejuvenated CPM

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC had won 22 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state, and the BJP a surprising 18, with the Congress winning the remaining two. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the CPI(M) had again failed to open its account.

In 2019, the BJP surge is believed to have come from Hindu voters moving to the party, which in turn had caused Muslim consolidation behind the TMC – with the CPI(M) losing out on both counts. Some of the traditional Left vote is now seen as having a rethink, with signs of this seen in the panchayat polls last year.

Leaders in both the TMC and BJP camps admitted that they were late to catch on to the realisation that the CPI(M) was doing better than expected. In the last phase seats, which the TMC had dominated in 2019, there are at least two strong CPI(M) candidates in the fray – Sujan Chakraborty in Dum Dum, and Srijan Bhattacharya in Jadavpur.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC had won 22 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state, and the BJP a surprising 18, with the Congress winning the remaining two.

Two days ago, addressing back-to-back rallies at Barasat and Baruipur, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said: “West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has already announced that she will help them (the INDIA bloc, including the CPI-M and Congress) in New Delhi. A game is going on behind the scenes.”

Cautioning people that a vote for the CPI(M) would be a vote for the TMC, Modi added: “They are two different parties, but they have the same shop and have the same items on display. The TMC and Left Front indulge in the politics of vote bank appeasement and tolabaazi (protection rackets). Both the TMC and Left are in the INDIA bloc. They are anti-democratic, which is why there is violence in every Bengal election.”

He further said, “First, the Congress looted West Bengal. Then, the CPI(M) did the same. And now, the TMC has crossed all limits of plundering the state.”

In her attack on the CPI(M), Mamata accused the Left party of reaching an “understanding” with the BJP on the Dum Dum Lok Sabha seat. According to her, as a part of this, while the BJP will transfer its votes to Dum Dum CPI(M) candidate Sujan Chakraborty, the CPI(M) will reciprocate by helping the BJP candidate in the simultaneous bypoll for the Baranagar Assembly segment falling under the Dum Dum Lok Sabha constituency.

The TMC chief said this at a rally at Baruipur, falling under the Jadavpur Lok Sabha constituency, in support of party candidate Sayani Ghosh, who is facing unexpected headwinds against the CPI(M)’s youth face Srijan Bhattacharya.

A senior TMC leader said that while it is clear that the vote share of the Left-Congress combine will rise, what is causing the anxiety is “we don’t know whose votes they are going to snatch”.

“If they get a part of the minority vote, it will damage us. If they regain their Hindu vote bank, the BJP will lose.”

Rubbishing Mamata’s claims of an understanding with the BJP in Dum Dum, CPI(M) candidate Sujan Chakraborty asks why she didn’t say this while campaigning in the seat, and chose to do it in Jadavpur instead. “The CM should remember that the BJP could not open its account in Bengal during the Left Front reign in the state. Lotus flourished in the state only during TMC rule,” Chakraborty says.

State BJP spokesman and Rajya Sabha MP Samik Bhattacharya also says there is no basis to Mamata’s statements. “The CM is making these last-minute claims as she realises her party’s defeat from Dum Dum is inevitable.”

While the CPI(M)-led Left Front and Congress had together got only 6%-7% of the votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, by continuously projecting youth faces since, and ensuring a solid understanding with the Congress at the ground level, the Left Front clawed back to secure over 20% votes in last year’s panchayat elections. In districts like Murshidabad, Malda and Birbhum, its votes were higher, at 26%.

Both the Left Front and Congress expect this rise to continue. CPI(M) Jadavpur candidate Srijan Bhattacharya says, “We always try to set our own narrative. That is why we are not talking about what the TMC or the BJP are saying. We are talking about issues like employment, price rise.”