Why Amit Shah sought to reassure South: In most delimitation formulas based on population, the region loses out

The South’s fears stem from the fact that a delimitation based purely on population – to be carried out on the basis of a fresh Census – would end up hurting the South which has been able to control its numbers compared to the North.

Delimitation is a Constitutional mandate, to be carried out after every Census, to readjust the number of seats and their boundaries on the basis of the latest population data. But the number of seats for the Lok Sabha and state Assemblies has remained frozen since 1976.

Opposition parties, particularly those that do well in the South, have been talking for a while about a delimitation based on population skewing the general elections in favour of parties that do well in the North, such as the BJP. In September 2023, during the debate in Parliament on the Women’s Reservation Bill – whose implementation is linked to the delimitation process – too, Tamil Nadu’s ruling DMK had raised concern over delimitation.

DMK leader Kanimozhi had read out a statement from Stalin, which said, “If delimitation is going to be on population Census, it will deprive and reduce the representation of the South Indian states…”

Supporting Kanimozhi, Trinamool Congress MP Mahua Moitra had said, “According to data, we will have a 0% increase in seats for Kerala, only 26% for Tamil Nadu, but a whopping 79% for both Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.”

How the seat numbers will be decided

Which state gets how many seats following delimitation will depend upon the base average population that a delimitation commission, as and when constituted, will arrive at to carve out constituencies. In the 1977 Lok Sabha, the first after the number of seats was frozen, each MP on average represented about 10.11 lakh people. While there are large variations, especially in small states, the objective is to keep this number in as tight a range as possible across all seats.

But there is no restriction on what this number should be. For instance, if the 1977 population-to-MP ratio of 10.11 lakh is retained today, the strength of the Lok Sabha would have to be expanded to nearly 1,400 owing to the increase in population since then. For UP (including Uttarakhand) the number will go up to 250 seats compared to its present share of 85 in the Lok Sabha, in effect increasing its seats threefold. Bihar and Jharkhand’s combined seats would increase from 54 to 169 – again a threefold increase. Similarly, Rajasthan’s would increase from 25 to 82.

But Tamil Nadu’s share would increase from 39 to only 76, less than double. Kerala’s would rise from 20 to 36.

However, one indication that 10.11 lakh is not likely to be retained as base is that the new Parliament building has provision to seat only 888 in the Lok Sabha. That means the average population of every constituency would have to go up.

If the average population per constituency is doubled at 20 lakh for the purpose of delimitation, giving the Lok Sabha 707 seats as compared to 543 now, southern states would still be at a disadvantage. Under this formula, Tamil Nadu’s seats would remain the same, 39. But Kerala would lose two seats and end up with 18. Conversely, UP (including Uttarakhand) would still register an increase to 126 seats, as would Bihar and Jharkhand together to 85 seats.

Even at an average population of 15 lakh per constituency, which would take the total Lok Sabha seats to 942, southern states would be at disadvantage. This formula will give Tamil Nadu 52 seats and Kerala 24 seats. But UP (along with Uttarakhand) will get 168 seats, and Bihar and Jharkhand 114 seats.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, each seat had an average 17.84 lakh voters and, based on Census projections, 25.8 lakh total population.

Notably, in July last year, the Sangh Parivar too had flagged that lower birth rates in western and southern India had placed these regions at a “disadvantage”. RSS-affiliated magazine The Organiser had said in an editorial: “Regional imbalance is another critical dimension that will impact the delimitation process of the Parliamentary constituencies in the future. The states from the West and South are doing relatively better regarding population control measures and, therefore, fear losing a few seats in Parliament if the base population is changed after the Census.”