Opinion Nepal PM on the precipice as Madhesi front threaten protests

Dahal who moved a constitutional amendment bill in Parliament approximately two months ago, had agreed to amend it further to fulfill the demand of the alliance but the main opposition party, the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) strongly opposes such a move on the grounds that any change of boundaries on the basis of ethnicity — as suggested by the alliance — will be ‘detrimental to social amity and sovereignty’.

For Dahal who leads a coalition government in a hung parliament, the support of the UML, the third largest party, is as crucial as the support of the alliance.

On Monday, the alliance partners warned the Prime Minister that it will go on a nationwide strike from February 5 if its demands are not fulfilled, something that creates a huge headache for Dahal. The passage of the constitutional amendment bill is the first step to conducting three elections —local body, provincial level, and to the federal Parliament– by January next year, a mandatory provision in the Constitution. “All our achievements –federalism, secularism and republicanism – will be gone if we fail to hold elections,” Dahal reiterated at a meeting with the leaders of the alliance.

The PM is trying to convince the Front to agree on a date for elections to the local bodies by early June and to keep their demands on hold ‘in order to save the political achievements’. The UML and a section of the Nepali Congress, the principal coalition partner in the government, also insist that an election date be first announced and then the constitutional amendment issue could be addressed, but the alliance took a tough line saying ‘first amendment and then elections’.

Dahal’s failure to address the latter’s demands will amount to going back on his word given at the time of forming the government. And putting the amendment bill to vote without having requisite two third majority may lead to yet another crisis for his government.

Dahal formed the government with the Nepali Congress, and with the outside support of the Front on the understanding that he would hand over the leadership to Nepali Congress Chairman Sher Bahadur Deuba in April but his failure to placate both sides–UML and the Front now– and announce the date for elections for the local bodies, may cut short his tenure.