Opinion Russia goes in

Moscow’s military involvement in the four-year-long Syrian civil war, which officially began on Wednesday with the launch of Russian airstrikes against rebel positions, is a major diplomatic gamble by President Vladimir Putin. With an eye, purportedly, to protecting Russia’s strategic interests and securing the country against the Islamic State (IS), Putin has evidently capitalised on the US administration’s apparent lack of strategy on Syria. He chastised the West for letting much of the post-Arab Spring Middle East degenerate into chaos. To make his point, in a departure from recent habit, he attended the UN General Assembly and held a meeting with US President Barack Obama to explain his plans.

Whether this portends a global geopolitical inflection point depends on what the Russians intend to do in Syria and how effectively they do so. The question being asked is whether the Russians are, indeed, trying to destroy the IS or merely prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, their longstanding ally. The US claims that Moscow has targeted areas where the IS has no presence. Putin, given his status as pariah in the eyes of the West after the annexation of Crimea last year and hard-pressed by Russia’s economic woes after sanctions, will be loath to give up what he sees as an opportunity to re-establish Russian influence in the Middle East.

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While US Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter accused Moscow of pouring “gasoline on the fire”, the lack of coordination on the ground between Nato and Russia could lead to a situation where a US or French fighter comes in the line of Russian fire, leading to a diplomatic catastrophe at the least. Unlike Obama’s apparent procrastination on Syria, Putin appears to know what he wants. But the opportunity he sees comes with big risks. Washington and Moscow must take their forthcoming military talks very seriously.