Opinion Pivotal concerns

US President Barack Obama’s four-nation tour of Asia is a much-delayed attempt to shore up his credibility among America’s allies in the region. Given Obama’s domestic political troubles as well as events across the world — from Washington’s failure to intervene in Syria to the crisis in Ukraine, which saw the US unable to prevent Russia’s annexation of Crimea — doubts harboured by countries in the Asia-Pacific, about US ability or willingness to come to their defence in the face of a territorially assertive China, have deepened. The cancellation of Obama’s Asia trip last October, due to the US government shutdown, seemed to worsen matters. Enthusiasm for the US pivot to Asia talked up in Obama’s first term had all but disappeared in the second, given Washington’s evident preoccupation with the Middle East peace process and Europe, particularly Ukraine. Even as Obama travelled through Asia, Vice President Joe Biden was in Europe, rattling the sabre against Russia.

Obama’s reaffirmation of US military support for Japan in the islands’ dispute with China was conditioned by his emphasis on a Tokyo-Beijing dialogue and his omission of the question of the islands’ sovereignty. Each of the countries on Obama’s tour map, including Malaysia, has territorial disputes with China, and these announcements — cautious support to Japan, strengthening of military cooperation with the Philippines, assurances to South Korea — have been welcomed as a sign of renewed US engagement. But these moves may not be strong enough to reassure US allies. On the other hand, despite Washington’s delicate balancing act, the developments provoked strong Chinese condemnation. It is, therefore, not clear if Obama’s tour has met its objectives, especially when the trade aspect has seen a setback, with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s inability to overcome domestic opposition to a trade deal with the US — billed as a critical step towards the centrepiece of the pivot, the Trans-Pacific Partnership — that the US Congress has not given its support to either.

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India must pay more attention to this changing dynamic in Asia. The US-Japan joint statement has mentioned Washington and Tokyo’s desire to strengthen trilateral cooperation with “like-minded partners”, such as South Korea, Australia and India, which assumes significance with the upcoming sixth chapter of the US-Japan-India “trialogue” in New Delhi this summer. However, the trialogue has faltered, owing to the disinterest shown by both the Obama administration and UPA2. It is up to the next government in Delhi to breathe new life into the trialogue and engage with India’s Asian partners to build stronger defence and economic partnerships, to make up for the lost opportunities under the UPA.