Opinion On new terms
As BJP, Sena battle over seatsharing, a new coalition model may be emerging in Maharashtra
The public wrangling between the BJP and the Shiv Sena over seat-sharing in Maharashtra is an outcome of the combine’s heady success in the general election. The NDA won an unprecedented 42 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats from the state. With the Congress-NCP alliance staring at massive anti-incumbency after three consecutive terms in power, the NDA believes that the upcoming assembly election would bring a repeat of the general election results. Within the alliance, the BJP, the junior partner to the Sena since the two came together a quarter of a century ago, believes the moment has come for the party to emerge on its own in Maharashtra. The demand within the BJP ranks for more seats — the BJP fielded candidates in 119 seats and the Sena in 160 in the 2009 assembly election — is the result of its newfound confidence that Narendra Modi’s charisma alone could sweep the state. A higher tally than the Sena in the assembly would then legitimise the party’s claim to head the new government. Uddhav Thackeray’s throwing his hat in the ring to become chief minister is an indicator of the Sena’s wariness
of the BJP’s ambitions and a move to preempt a debate on the leadership issue.
It is well known that the factors that influence assembly elections are separate and different from those that shape the outcome of the general election. Local governance issues are likely to matter more for the people when they vote in October, but politics in this industrial state has been shaped by two clear coalitions that represent distinct social blocks. If the split in the Sena and the emergence of Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena dented the NDA’s prospects in the last assembly election, the BJP-Sena combine cut into the social base of the Congress-NCP by roping in farmers’ leader Raju Shetty and Dalit leader Ramdas Athawale ahead of the last general election. If the old alliances unravel and new ones are made, it could impact the outcome in Maharashtra.
The larger question concerns the fate of the NDA. Would the BJP, riding the Modi wave, consolidate its alliance with the Shiv Sena or give full play to the party’s ambitions for electoral growth in new areas, even at the cost of allies? In Haryana, which too is headed for polls, the BJP has abandoned its ally, the Haryana Janhit Congress. How the party concludes seat talks with the Sena could have a bearing on its future relations with other allies.
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