Opinion Israel’s attack on Iran: Step back from the brink

Israel’s “pre-emptive” attack on Iran, dubbed Operation Rising Lion, is an escalation that has taken a region under the shadow of a looming war to a precipice. Israel has bombed several nuclear power stations in Iran and killed at least six nuclear scientists, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, General Hossein Salami, and other senior military leaders. According to Iranian media, at least 78 people have been killed. Iran has retaliated with drone strikes, most of which have reportedly been intercepted. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio distanced Washington from the attack, while President Donald Trump, contradicting his administration, called the move “excellent” and warned of more strikes if Iran does not curb its nuclear programme. A detente in West Asia is now more remote than at any point since Hamas’s October 7 terror attacks followed by the Benjamin Netanyahu government’s violent reprisals that have widened the theatre of conflict.

Earlier this week, the International Atomic Energy Agency censured Iran for not complying with its non-proliferation commitments. Washington has also been trying to negotiate a fresh nuclear deal with Iran — Trump’s first administration backed out of the 2015 JCPOA between Iran and the five Permanent Members of the UNSC, which Israel strongly opposed. Now, the escalation of hostilities by Tel Aviv has scuppered any chance of progress on that front. Israel’s contention that military action against Iran — and a possible regime change — is the only route to stability in the region, or Trump’s notion that force can carve a path to a “deal” lead to dead ends. They ignore Tehran’s role in the broader region. While Iran’s proxies are on the back foot, the country continues to be an energy supplier with a capable military. Even if successful, regime changes rarely lead to stability.

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The escalation carries the danger of turning the clock back on the ceasefire between the US and the Houthis. It also makes the expansion of the Abraham Accords — one of Trump’s most emphatic diplomatic successes in his first term — all but impossible. Trump’s appeal to his MAGA base, in part, is about him being a “dealmaker” who can remove the US from global conflicts. Trump had urged Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations to join the Accords and normalise ties with Israel last month. Israel’s prolonged attacks on civilians in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis it has caused make such a rapprochement all but impossible. India, with ties and stakes in the region, has urged both sides to avoid “escalatory steps”. The task of diplomacy now is to provide an off-ramp to Tehran. The last thing the region needs is all-out war.