Opinion India and Canada, after Justin Trudeau

For some time now, the departure of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been expected. Over the last several months, partners from within the ruling coalition as well as senior members of his Liberal Party have questioned his leadership and handling of key issues, including inflation and immigration. As far back as the pandemic, his record on the economy has been mixed at best. The immigration issue is more vexed: Canada needs, and has welcomed, migrants and refugees. However, like in the US, many in Canada contend that Trudeau has gone too far in making borders more open. With a slew of senior leaders resigning recently and with a general election slated for later this year, Trudeau’s resignation this week may well have come too late for the Liberals to salvage their fortunes.

The current situation in Canada — in fact, in North America as a whole — is one of flux. The impending Trump presidency has generated more economic and diplomatic uncertainty: His threats to impose tariffs to the tune of 25 per cent on Canadian goods, his rhetoric calling Canada the “51st US state” and Trudeau its “Governor” do not augur well. He has also threatened to re-look at the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The Conservatives are pushing for early elections, in which, it is widely believed, they will have the upper hand.

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For Delhi, the change of guard in Canada is an opportunity — if a limited one. There is no doubt that India-Canada ties have suffered greatly under Trudeau. He has yet to publicly present evidence for his accusation — made on the floor of his country’s parliament in 2023 — that the Indian government was involved in the assassination of Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Last year, Canada declared senior Indian diplomats as “persons of interest” in the case. However, a change in Ottawa may not mean an automatic reset of ties with Delhi — returning to equilibrium after the maximalist positions taken by the current Canadian government will take time and patience. But Trudeau’s departure does provide a chance for a deeper structural relook at bilateral engagement. The uncertainty in the Canadian visa regime vis-a-vis India is a cause for concern for thousands of students and workers, and has resonance in the diaspora. It is important that Canadian politicians listen to these concerns as well as those around separatists operating from the country’s soil — rather than appeasing the most radical fringe of the diaspora. That can be a step towards rebuilding a relationship that has great potential for both countries.