Opinion In regular breaches of 1.5 degree Celsius Paris Pact target warnings for a warmer world

The average global temperature between July 2023 and June 2024 was the highest on record, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service’s latest bulletin. The agency, among the World Meteorological Organisation’s key sources of climate data, has revealed that in the past 12 months, the planet was 1.64 degrees Celsius hotter than in the fossil fuel era. The findings do not immediately mean that the world has defaulted on the Paris Climate Pact’s 1.5 degrees threshold — that target is measured in terms of decadal averages and not yearly temperature. Last month was the Earth’s hottest June on record. The onset of La Nina might bring relief to people in several parts of the world. Nevertheless, there are enough reasons to see the EU agency’s data as a continuing shift in global temperatures. The “temporary” breaches of the 1.5-degrees target over the past two years are warnings to brace for a warmer world and bolster adaptation mechanisms.

Reducing GHG emissions and limiting the amount of warming has so far been the prime focus of climate policymaking. However, mitigation targets have historically been inadequate and the global community has never agreed on who shoulders the greater burden of decarbonisation. At the same time, it is increasingly becoming evident that even a decimal-point increase in global warming makes extreme weather events more intense and frequent. Last year, the IPCC’s Synthesis Report warned that measures to build resilience are “largely small-scale, reactive and incremental with most focusing on near-term risks”. The report underlined the need to weather-proof agriculture, secure people’s livelihoods, protect the vulnerable from rising seas and rivers and strengthen healthcare systems.

Advertisement

In 2021, the New Delhi-based Council for Energy, Environment and Water’s study revealed that more than 80 per cent of India’s population is vulnerable to climate disasters, and most regions have low adaptive capacities. India does have a climate adaptation plan. But the toll taken every year by landslides, floods and heat waves underscores that much needs to be done to secure the vulnerable. Despite advancements, India’s weather reporting system finds it difficult to keep pace with climate-related complexities. The infrastructure of even the metros like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru struggles to cope with extreme rainfall episodes. Like most parts of the world, India’s climate adaptation project remains a top-down endeavour. It’s time that policymakers appreciated that climate change is a global phenomenon that cannot overlook local solutions.