Opinion Express View: Unseasonal rainfall and heat surges are threatening rabi crop

This rabi season has been unusual, and not too great, for farmers — just like the last one. 2021-22 registered surplus rainfall every month from September to January. It was followed by the hottest ever March, with the mercury spike from the middle of the month singeing the wheat crop. This time, November to February had very little rain. Not only was it a dry winter, the country also recorded the hottest ever February, raising the spectre of March 2022 being repeated or even surpassed. As it turned out, temperatures didn’t soar that much, with the maximums at 30-33 degrees Celsius till mid-March and well within limits not to cause any yield losses. But then, it poured. All-India rainfall this month has so far been 24.4 per cent above the long period average and 245.5 per cent after March 16. And with the Met Department forecasting a fresh spell of rainfall and thunderstorm activity from Thursday evening, the woes from a wet March couldn’t be worse.

In short, unseasonal rainfall has done to this year’s rabi crop what the sudden surge in temperatures did last year. Both happened after mid-March when the wheat in much of north and northwest India was in the grain development and filling stages. The extent of damage from the current rains is yet to be ascertained. It would be more in places where the rains were accompanied by hail and thunderstorms. The crop whose earheads are heavy with well-filled grains would be the most vulnerable to lodging or bending over from high-velocity winds. It’s not only wheat. Mustard, too, is still to be fully harvested. Even the harvested produce, normally kept in fields for 6-7 days to dry before threshing, is prone to damage or infestation by painted bug pests. There are also reports of damage to other crops — from grapes and mangoes to chilli, coriander and jeera — that were near to harvesting.

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The difference between now and last year is that producers are more likely to be affected than consumers. The main reason for it is global prices. The failure of the last rabi crop coincided with the supply disruptions that followed the war in Ukraine. Those disruptions have since eased and world food prices come off considerably from their March 2022 highs. Even a not-so-bumper rabi crop is unlikely to result in any resurgence of inflation. That should, however, not stop the government from undertaking an assessment of losses suffered by farmers and compensate them at the earliest. For the medium and long term, there is a need for better preparedness in tackling the challenges to agriculture from climate change. Heat waves and unseasonal rains are mere manifestations of that.