Opinion Express View on three years of Russia-Ukraine conflict: War and politics

As the world marks three years of Russia’s war in Ukraine this week, the horrific human tragedy on the ground serves as a brutal reminder that geopolitics continues to overshadow the high principles in whose name wars are often fought. What happens on the battlefield is only part of the story. In the end, the outcomes of war are shaped by the political equations within and among the rival entities. As the Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz famously said, war is merely the continuation of politics by other means. Nearly a million people have been killed or wounded in Ukraine and Russia, making this the bloodiest European war since World War II. Ukraine’s cities have been devastated by relentless Russian air and missile strikes over the past three years. While Russia might want to declare victory in a war it initially believed would be over in a week, the costs of its territorial ambitions have been immense — thanks to Western sanctions and the loss of crucial economic and political partnerships with the West.

Ukraine and Russia, with their deep religious, ethnic, and cultural ties, are both losers in a war that should never have been fought. There is no doubt that Moscow’s invasion — justified on the imperialist claim that Ukraine had no right to exist as a sovereign nation—was an act of aggression. Ukraine’s fight to restore its territorial integrity and sovereignty was, by every measure, a just war. However, as the smaller power, Ukraine’s success was never solely dependent on the righteousness of its cause but rather on the level of support it could secure from Europe and the United States. Europe, which initially rallied behind Ukraine in the wake of Russia’s invasion, is now increasingly divided. The United States, which poured vast resources into Ukraine’s defence and mobilised global backing, has shifted its stance following a change in government in Washington. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, once celebrated as a heroic leader of resistance, is now being vilified by the new US administration as a corrupt squanderer of American funds. Meanwhile, Russia, which long condemned the US as the primary instigator of the conflict, is now eager to negotiate with President Donald Trump. The once relentless stream of anti-American rhetoric from Moscow is now being replaced by talk of reviving World War II-era cooperation with the US to stabilise Europe.

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As the political terrain of the Ukraine war shifts, Delhi has reason to feel vindicated about its prudent approach. While Russia’s invasion blatantly violated the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty — values India holds dear — Delhi refrained from outrightly condemning Moscow. Given its longstanding strategic ties with Russia, India was willing to bear the costs of its decision. Now, as the U.S. reconfigures its position and appears ready to move on from Ukraine, Delhi can argue that its emphasis on dialogue and diplomacy has proved prudent in the long run. At the same time, those in Delhi who have long romanticised Russia as the leader of an anti-American coalition must recognise that Moscow’s ultimate goal was never to supplant the US but rather to improve its own terms of engagement with Washington.