Opinion Express View: Climate diplomats at COP-27 must address challenges unleashed by the Ukraine conflict

The 27th Conference of Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) that begins on November 6 was not slated to be a major milestone in the Paris Pact’s calendar. However, several developments have combined to make the nearly two-week-long meet at Sharm El-Sheikh in Egypt crucial for the agreement’s success. The Ukraine conflict has led to diplomatic realignments that have major implications for cooperation between nations — a key requisite for the success of the Paris processes. It has pushed nations to redraw their energy plans, the implications of which for decarbonisation remain unclear. In the near term, the crisis seems to have jeopardised one of COP 26’s major achievements — the near-global consensus to cut down coal use.

COP 26 in Glasgow was the first test for the Paris Pact’s ambition upscaling mechanism. In the run-up to the summit, a number of studies revealed that the emission cuts proposed after the landmark deal would be insufficient to prevent temperatures from rising beyond the I.5 degree Celsius threshold set at Paris. Ratcheting up the climate ambitions of nations was one of the contentious issues at Glasgow — it remained an unfinished task. A year later, only 24 countries have submitted updated climate action plans. The UNFCCC’s latest assessment reveals that the total mitigation commitments — if implemented — will increase emissions by 10.6 per cent by 2030 — according to the Paris Pact, a 45 per cent emissions reduction is required to align with the 1.5 degree Celsius goal. The current pledges put the world at risk of a 2.5-degree Celsius temperature rise by the end of the century. On the agenda at Sharm El-Sheikh is forging consensus on a “mitigation programme” to keep the I.5 degree target within reach. If the history of the UNFCCC processes is anything to go by, this is not going to be an easy task.

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Climate tragedies in the past six months, including the devastating monsoon floods in Pakistan, have pushed countries with negligible GHG footprints to demand compensation for damages. Finance has been a consensus breaker at most climate summits and in a world roiled by economic uncertainty, the possibility of rich countries loosening their purse strings does not appear to be bright. That said, post-Paris, there seems to be a better understanding of shared global warming vulnerabilities. Will the climate compact, already fragile, hold up in the face of challenges posed by the Ukraine conflict? Climate diplomats will have much work to do in the next two weeks to make sure that it does.