Opinion A fragile future

Monday’s flag-lowering ceremony at Nato’s combat headquarters in Kabul signalled the formal end of the International Security Assistance Force’s (Isaf) combat role in Afghanistan by end-December. This begins the transition of the Isaf mission to a training and support role. At 1,40,000 peak troop strength in 2011, the residual force will be 13,000 strong, and withdrawn by end-2016. Thirteen years after the US-led invasion ousted the Taliban, the militants are back as a threat to the security, stability and survival of the Afghan state. 2014 has been the most violent year since 2001, with 4,600-plus Afghan security personnel killed, exceeding the total casualty figure of 3,500 for foreign troops since 2001. US President Barack Obama recently authorised US forces to carry out operations against the Taliban and al-Qaeda, apart from providing combat and air support to Afghan forces — a more active role than originally planned for post-2014.

The backdrop in which Nato ends its combat role stretches back to Obama’s 2009 decision to increase the troop strength to stabilise Afghanistan and leave it in a reasonable shape while ensuring US forces did not stay on for too long, given the unpopularity of America’s longest war at home. The decision to add an extra 1,000 to the 9,800 troops the US had planned to leave behind is evidence of American doubts about the Afghan forces’ ability. Even though Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s signing of the twin agreements with the US and Nato has allowed the continuity of aid and the presence of the residual Nato force, the Taliban sees the same as a red line and is expected to increase its attacks hereafter.

Advertisement

While Afghanistan’s political transition is still incomplete and the survival of the power-sharing deal between Ghani and CEO Abdullah Abdullah is uncertain, Pakistan’s attempts at destabilising its neighbour for strategic gain are unlikely to cease. In retrospect, the objective of stability envisioned in 2001 has been elusive and Nato’s combat mission has not achieved its primary goal. With its investment in Afghan reconstruction and fears of a resurgent Taliban, New Delhi has long dreaded this moment. However, knowing the pressure of domestic politics on Obama, every party has had to come to terms with the situation. India, too, must deal with it.