Opinion Why the humanitarian pause in Gaza is not peace

For its part, Israel would release about 150 Palestinian women and children who are in its jails. It might release more prisoners if Hamas frees additional hostages. Israel seems to have identified about 300 persons who were not accused/convicted of violent crimes.

Hamas has demanded and perhaps secured an Israeli assurance against using drones over the Gaza Strip for up to six hours daily. Hamas needs this to “identify and collect” the hostages who are kept or scattered in different parts of the densely populated Gaza Strip. Israeli drones will give away the potential safe havens for current or future usage.
Israel is insisting that the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) should have access to all hostages in the Gaza Strip. It is not clear if the ICRC — not known for sympathising with Israel — would have access to all the hostages or only those who would be freed as part of the current deal. There are no indications of the medical conditions of the hostages, some of whom required constant medical attention and care before their kidnapping.

The Biden administration has been exerting considerable political pressure upon Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to secure the hostage deal. Qatar, which has emerged as the chief patron of the militant Palestinian group, has been the lynchpin of the hostage deal and has been active with the external leadership of Hamas, comprising Ismail Haniyeh, Khaled Mashal and Moussa Abu Marzouk.

Egypt, which borders the Gaza Strip, has been the principal facilitator of the engagement with the Gaza-based local Hamas leadership. Most probably, the freed civilians will be delivered or taken to Rafah crossing on the Egypt-Gaza border before being taken to Israel.
The prisoner swap is not unusual for Israel. In October 2011, incidentally, with Netanyahu as prime minister, Israel had freed 1,027 Palestinian prisoners — including some convicted for terrorism — to secure the release of former soldier Gilad Shalit, who was kept hostage by Hamas for over five years. There have been several similar but smaller swaps in the past.

The swap deal is unlikely to be a happy moment for anyone. The price of their freedom is heavy and paid in blood. Palestinians have lost over 11,000 persons, and Israel has lost at least 66 soldiers in the Gaza Strip in the ground offensive. This is in addition to about 1,400 killed in the October 7 attack.

There is dissent within Israel over the swap deal. Netanyahu faces opposition from his right-wing coalition partners. Until the release of all hostages, including men and soldiers, Israel is unlikely to cease its offensive. Netanyahu’s political longevity, though meagre, rests on that. Media reports suggest the ceasefire would last only about 10 days from the “first release”. To make matters worse, Almagor Terror Victims Association has threatened to appeal to Israel’s High Court of Justice against the deal.

Moreover, the swap deal covers only 50 hostages, while the estimated number of hostages in the Gaza Strip is about 240. How many hostages are still alive? Since the Israeli offensive, Hamas has been claiming that some were killed in the Israeli offensive. It appears that some of the hostages are toddlers, and it is not clear if their mothers would also be freed alongside or if they have already been killed. Thus, the small number of hostage releases will only increase the agony and anxiety of the family members whose relatives are still in captivity and whose fate remains unknown.

This is a humbling moment also for Hamas. Mass protests in several Western capitals proved insufficient to alter ground realities. Hamas was fighting for the Gaza Strip, not even for all the Palestinians, but definitely not for the wider Muslim world. The Arab-Islamic summit in Riyadh underscored the internal cleavages and fault lines within the Umma. The much anticipated expansion of the conflict with the participation of Iran and its proxies did not happen or happened only symbolically.

The temporary — perhaps fragile — ceasefire will not end this round of conflict, let alone the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Both sides have invested so much and lost so many human lives to end this cycle of violence. Both leaders have nothing to show to their constituents. Ending the conflict without “destroying or defeating” Hamas will be politically untenable for Netanyahu. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood brought more deaths and destruction to the Palestinians than several recent rounds put together.

If it were to be effective and stable, the limited hostage release has to be accompanied by other measures such as greater humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip; political accountability of Hamas, greater involvement of the West Bank-based Palestine National Authority in the Gaza affairs; concerted international efforts for reconstruction; greater security to Israel, especially along the Gaza border; and, above all, a tangible movement towards a two-state solution — a very tall order, even by Middle East standards.
Given the unpredictable nature of the region, nothing is certain until it actually happens. There have been several false hopes and signs in the past. There is domestic anger against Netanyahu as well as the Hamas leadership. Israel has a structure to find an alternative. What will be the future course of the elusive Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip?

The writer teaches contemporary Middle East at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi