Opinion Who is afraid of China?
The Prime Minister drew more attention for what he said about disagreements in the Cabinet than what he said about China.
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The Prime Minister drew more attention for what he said about disagreements in the Cabinet than what he said about China. On Cabinet disagreements,he was in a way right and such quarrels were not unknown in Jawaharlal Nehrus time. But once Sardar Patel died,Nehru had no one powerful enough to differ with him in the Cabinet. More was the pity since that is why he got the China policy so wrong.
Indira Gandhi split the party to settle scores with Morarji Desai. But once he went,she had no further Cabinet dissensions. She too could have used some Cabinet dissension rather than stumble into Emergency. There is a role for Cabinet dissension if it is driven by genuine ideological differences but not if it is just a faction fight.
Yet,the more significant observation was about Chinas intentions in South Asia. For Manmohan Singh to be so explicit,China must have breached some limitsI suspect it is the news that China is building a roadway in Gilgit and Baltistan which will let it get its trucks all the way down to Karachi and the sea. The Great Game is alive again. In the 19th century,it was Russia looking for a salt water port. Now it is China and China seems to be winning the Great Game.
It is good that India is now taking Chinas activities seriously and thinking aloud as to what it means. One wishes for co-operation with China and much mutual benefit from trade. But the truth remains that India and China share a large uneasy border. China has never given up its claim to large chunks of territory which is on Indias side. It believes that the border was fixed by British Imperialists while China was weak. Now that China is strong again and aspiring to be Middle Kingdom once more,China wants its old territory back.
Indian defence and foreign policy has been for too long been shaped by Pakistan. India has fought four wars with Pakistan and lost none of them. India and China fought twice in 1962 and both times India was humiliated. Large chunks of Indias territory are occupied by China. The inroads in Baltistan impinge on Kashmir. Indias Pakistan policy needs to come together with its China policy. No wonder the PM is worried.
India has been for too long unsure of itself in international relations. In the first forty years,it punched above its weight lecturing the world about peace and morality. The world did not take much notice. Now India is an economic powerhouse,but it is punching below its weight . It is unsure that it is a potential big power. This inferiority complex came out during the debates over the India-US nuclear deal. There is a lingering feeling that the Big Bad Wolf out there will devour India.
This is false. The India-US deal is,as I have said before,a just in case alliance for the two who are,and need to be,wary of China. This is not something to be ignored or wished away or denied. There is a likelihood,perhaps small or maybe not,that China will come in conflict with US and/or India. India has to be prepared for such a scenario. India cannot be at ease about the border. It can also not ignore Chinas action along the Indian Ocean and all long the seas where China is building a pearl necklace of ports as Britain had done during its imperial days.
China has big ambitions as the Middle Kingdom Mark 2. It may overreach itself as other hegemons have done,but it is certainly trying. Indias history does not afford any parallel to such grandiose thinking. The Cholas were a maritime power in the Indian Ocean. But that apart,India has never had maritime empires. Its main aspiration has been to be a single united territory.
It is this aspiration which will be threatened if India does not take China seriously. China in Gilgit is a danger sign. India has problems stretching all the way to Arunachal Pradesh across its border. It will not go away by crying Hindi-Chini Bhai Bhai.
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