Opinion Who can stop Narendra Modi from a third term in office?

Compare this with the BJP: In 2019, PM Modi became the first sitting PM since Pandit Nehru who headed a clear majority government and returned to power after completing a full term. Those who believed 2014 was an aberration were shocked to see the tally of the BJP rise even further in 2019. BJP has retained state governments and that too with very convincing numbers in key states like Uttar Pradesh (where it bucked a 40-year trend), Gujarat (where it set a record of seven consecutive Assembly poll wins), Uttarakhand, Haryana, Goa, Assam and Tripura. In Maharashtra and Bihar, too, the verdict had been in favour of the NDA and BJP.

This pro-incumbency is based on solid grounds and is linked to two dominant sentiments — trust and track record. Today, when people across India say “Modi hai toh mumkin hai”, we are seeing the unprecedented trust that people have in the Prime Minister’s words and intent. Today, 140 crore Indians are aware that this is a man who will never lie or make false promises.

Second is the exemplary track record in governance — something which PM Modi has gained after 22 years’ experience as the head of state and central governments. Very few leaders have such a rich experience. Firmly rooted in the principle of “Sabka saath, sabka vikas”, PM Modi has shown how governance can be compassionate, inclusive, just and futuristic. His key schemes have addressed problems that were unaddressed for decades, be it banking the unbanked, providing electricity to villages left in the dark, drinking water and housing for all or improved connectivity in remote areas. In a political climate dominated by the “If you vote, I will work” attitude, PM Modi has preferred a saturation approach. When it comes to governance, the Modi way is not to see where electoral gains lie — it is to see where real impact can be made.

It is due to this trust and track record that PM Modi has endeared himself to the poor, downtrodden, youngsters, farmers and women. When he unequivocally said that the only caste which mattered to him was poverty, it connected with people. When he highlighted how his government has boosted growth, it connected with youngsters. From smoke-free kitchens to representation in Parliament and state assemblies, for the women of India, Narendra Modi is their sole leader, and they are his suraksha kavach.

The recent electoral cycle is yet another reminder that the best politics is the politics of development and the undisputed champion of this brand of politics is Narendra Modi. His election speeches did not deviate from the core messaging — development, development and more development. The issues he raised formed a connect, whether it be the lack of housing in Chhattisgarh, better irrigation in Rajasthan, a double-engine government in Madhya Pradesh, to name a few. PM Modi explained that a vote for Congress is a vote for perpetuating a few dynasties but a vote for the BJP is a vote for furthering the aspirations of every child. A lot of muck was thrown at him, names were called, but the PM kept his electoral discourse free from such negativity. This is also something which must be lauded.

This sentiment towards PM Modi’s own popularity was evident when the Axis My India team covered the length and breadth of these five polling states and interviewed over 1.32 lakh people. Our numbers were rightly predicted for all the states (a track record that is unparalleled), and in case of Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Mizoram, the projection was spot on. Even in the cases of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the current mandates were not out of the realm of possibility. As per Axis My India projections, the BJP would cross the majority mark with 100 and 46 seats respectively in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, though we had given Congress an edge.

For a government that has completed nine years at the Centre and is in power in several states, such an electoral performance is unique. In Chhattisgarh, the BJP received the highest-ever vote share any party has received since 2003. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP enjoys an eight per cent gap from Congress. These are linked to a strong belief in PM Modi and the confidence that he will continue to deliver. And, with PM Modi’s call to work towards a hat-trick, it is certain that the BJP is stating that the 2024 elections will not be between PM Modi and the Opposition — it will be the people of India who will decide. I have always maintained that in the convoluted dance of Indian politics, it is neeyat (intention) and neeti (policy) which decides niyati (fate). The question is, in current circumstances, who can stop Narendra Modi from a record third term in office?

The writer is chairman and managing director, Axis My India