Opinion When Modi meets MbS: A Gulf of opportunities

Modi’s visit marks only the sixth time an Indian Prime Minister has been to Saudi Arabia since 1947, which underscores the under-performance in earlier decades. Jawaharlal Nehru visited in 1955, followed by Indira Gandhi more than a quarter-century later in 1982 and Manmohan Singh in 2010 after a gap of 28 years. In contrast, Modi’s upcoming trip will be his third — after visits in 2016 and 2019 — reflecting a higher priority for Saudi Arabia in India’s foreign policy strategy.

Despite historical, civilisational, and religious links between Arabia and the Indian subcontinent, India’s policy toward the region was long shaped by ideological posturing, apprehensions about Pakistan, and hesitancy to invest political capital. Even as India’s stakes in the Gulf grew — from the oil price shocks of the 1970s and 1980s to the surge in expatriate labour (now about 10 million people) — political engagement, especially with Saudi Arabia, lagged.

This began to change in the 21st century. External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh’s visit to Riyadh in 2000 and King Abdullah’s historic 2006 visit to India — the first by a Saudi monarch in 50 years — were key turning points. That visit broadened the bilateral agenda beyond oil to include strategic and economic cooperation, with a particular focus on counterterrorism. Crucially, it also began the process of de-hyphenating Saudi Arabia’s ties with India and Pakistan. India, in turn, ended the unfortunate tradition of viewing Saudi Arabia through the prism of Pakistan. Manmohan Singh’s 2010 visit laid the groundwork for a more robust, wide-ranging partnership. Under Modi, this trajectory has accelerated. Delhi’s engagement with the Arab Gulf, particularly Saudi Arabia, has become one of the most significant strategic advances in Indian foreign policy over the past decade. Frequent high-level visits and sustained diplomatic outreach have deepened ties across the energy, technology, economic, security, and connectivity domains. Many new initiatives in these areas are expected during Modi’s visit.

While India’s evolving relationship with Saudi Arabia is now widely recognised, the sweeping changes within the Kingdom under MbS receive less attention in India. Saudi Arabia’s metamorphosis — from a conservative and sclerotic state governed by ageing leadership to a dynamic, globally engaged actor — represents one of the most consequential geopolitical shifts of the 21st century.

When King Salman ascended the throne in 2015, he appointed MbS Defence Minister. In 2017, he named him Crown Prince, and in 2022, Prime Minister. As MbS consolidated power, he initiated ambitious reforms that have redefined both domestic governance and foreign policy. A key element of this transformation has been the shift from consensus-based decision-making within the large royal family to centralised authority under MbS. While this has streamlined governance and enhanced state efficiency, it has also drawn criticism for the new authoritarian style.

At the heart of MbS’s economic reform agenda is Vision 2030, launched in 2016 to diversify the kingdom’s economy away from oil dependence. The plan promotes growth in sectors like tourism, technology, entertainment, and renewables. Initiatives such as the partial privatisation of Saudi Aramco and mega-projects like Neom aim to attract foreign investment, create jobs, and position Saudi Arabia as a hub of innovation.

On the social front, Saudi Arabia has witnessed unprecedented liberalisation. Restrictions on women have eased — they can now drive and participate in public life. Cinemas, concerts, and public entertainment have proliferated. These reforms resonate with the country’s youthful population and reflect an aspiration to modernise national identity and align more closely with global norms. Given Saudi Arabia’s special role in the Islamic world, MbS’s emphasis on promoting “moderate Islam” has global significance. At a time when religious extremism is on the rise — including in the Subcontinent — Saudi Arabia’s shift toward moderation and coexistence is a welcome change.

In foreign policy, the kingdom under MbS has moved from a reactive posture to an assertive, proactive stance. Saudi Arabia has intervened militarily in Yemen, led a blockade against Qatar, and taken a firm line on Iran. However, MbS has also demonstrated flexibility — mending ties with Qatar, restoring relations with Turkey, and increasing outreach to Iran. He has also signalled a willingness to normalise ties with Israel, contingent on Tel Aviv’s progress toward a two-state solution with Palestine.

Saudi Arabia is also diversifying its global partnerships, moving beyond traditional dependence on the US. Its multi-alignment strategy includes deepening ties with China, Russia, and emerging powers. Its decision to join the expanded BRICS grouping and extend outreach to Africa and Latin America reflects a push to expand its influence in a multipolar world.

MbS seeks to position Saudi Arabia as a diplomatic hub for the region — mediating conflicts, both inter-state and intra-state, in the Middle East and North Africa and hosting dialogue between global powers like the US and Russia on Ukraine. His interest-driven, rather than ideologically rigid, approach marks a fundamental shift in the evolution of the Saudi kingdom — one that echoes the pragmatism of India’s own Middle East policy under Modi.

The writer is a distinguished fellow at the Council for Strategic and Defence Research and contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express