Opinion UNLF Peace Accord: Why one pact is not peace

Will the latest peace accord also act as a harbinger of peace in Manipur? UNLF is only one of the nine valley-based insurgent groups to sign the accord and Manipur has abrogated the Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with the Kuki militant groups. Over the years, UNLF has experienced divisions, leading to the emergence of the Pambei faction in 2021. Khundongbam Pambei, the former chairman, created this group after parting ways with the central committee. It is the Pambei faction which has advocated for dialogue, while the group led by N C Koireng has refrained from engaging in talks. Their relative strengths are still to be assessed after they are settled in camps with their weapons, under the SoO agreement. Some of the UNLF cadres and leaders are still based in Myanmar where they are on the backfoot due to a lack of continued patronage from the military junta which is facing heavy assault from insurgents in three states.

The biggest hurdle in the road to peace remains the floating looted arms numbering around 4,500 in various hands — militants, self-styled activist groups and private militias. Time and again this has been stressed upon by the security experts and operational commanders in the field. It is to be seen how many of these arms are surrendered by the UNLF. Seizures in large numbers will be a great achievement. If not, a major cause of worry will remain unaddressed.

The terms of the agreement are not known. The involvement of militants in the latest ethnic conflict may complicate the issue further. If criminal cases are withdrawn, then similar concessions have to be given on the other side to the Kuki militants who professedly are continuing with the SoO agreement. More problematic would be the withdrawal of cases on serious crimes. The demand for equal treatment by the Kuki militants is bound to come sooner or later.

It is incumbent upon the state now to bolster other efforts to bring durable peace to the state. The Supreme Court had sought enhanced compensation for those affected by the violence. Those displaced need to be rehabilitated. Zones carved out by militant groups and activists need to be dismantled on the ground. Criminal cases must be prosecuted at the earliest and above all the quest for a political agreement between the various stakeholders needs to be pursued in earnest.

Kuki-Zo groups led by Zo United have organised rallies both within and outside Manipur to demand a separate administration due to the ongoing conflict. Placards with messages like “Separate administration is the only solution” were displayed during these protests. The Indigenous Tribal Leaders Forum (ITLF) rallied in various cities and districts, seeking separate administration for specific areas. Zo United expressed despair over violence, citing ethnic cleansing by the Meitei majority and claiming the necessity of a separate administration for their tribes’ dignified existence.

Peace agreements can be challenging to implement. The primary issue is the multiplicity of stakeholders and the divergent interests of different groups. Diverse demands from various ethnic and/or tribal communities in regions like Manipur and Nagaland are difficult to reconcile. Each group has distinct historical grievances, aspirations and demands, making it hard to arrive at a resolution that satisfies all parties. The fragility of peace agreements also lies in their vulnerability to disruptions caused by extremist factions or splinter groups within these communities.

Moreover, the implementation of peace agreements also faces challenges due to historical distrust between the communities and the government. Consequently, the lack of faith in the government’s commitment to fulfilling promises outlined in peace agreements undermines their effectiveness. External influences and geopolitical factors may also play a role. The reluctance of neighbouring countries to support peace processes or interference by external actors can destabilise the region, implementing peace agreements a daunting task.

Manipur is a volatile border state. Spurts of violence since May with fragile peace at present warrant all-round efforts to bring peace. There is still time to bring all political parties on board, appoint a political negotiator backed by a team of administrators to meet the various stakeholders and hammer out an agreement from all sides.

The writer is chairman of DeepStrat, a former central information commissioner and a retired IPS officer who served as secretary, security, and special director, Intelligence Bureau. Views are personal