Opinion On one year of Rishi Sunak: He needs to articulate a hopeful vision for voters

Last week’s twin by-election losses to Labour in Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth underlined this. Mid-Bedfordshire bore witness to the largest numerical majority overturned in a British by-election while Tamworth saw the second biggest swing from Tories to Labour at a bye-election since 1945. The tide in British politics may be turning.

To recall, Sunak assumed office after Liz Truss’s brief and tumultuous premiership came to a close. It’s just over a year since Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget tore apart Britain’s reputation for fiscal prudence. A Tory party that stood for economic competence triggered market volatility and sky-rocketing mortgage bills for voters. Investors panicked over a tax cut and spending package funded by borrowing. Against this backdrop, Sunak’s warnings about combating inflation turned out to be prescient. It was no surprise that the Tories turned to him in a moment of crisis.

A year later how has he fared? At the start of his tenure Sunak made five key pledges focused on halving inflation, growing the economy, reducing national debt, cutting down NHS waiting times and combating illegal migration. On each, progress has been slower than he’d have liked.

Inflation continues to be a key concern. The looming winter looks to be a troublesome one for the NHS with elongated waiting times. The government’s policy of deporting illegal migrants to a “third country”, namely Rwanda, is up for scrutiny before the Supreme Court. National debt continues to rise while the IMF forecasts just 1 per cent growth for the economy next year.

For all that, Sunak has performed better than his recent predecessors. He has brought in a sense of focus and determination and deserves a measure of appreciation for restoring stability to government. He has continued to urge restraint in public sector pay discussions given inflation.
But voters are increasingly impatient. Warning signs surfaced when the Tories lost over a thousand seats in local elections earlier this year. Labour has leapfrogged ahead in opinion polls and Keir Starmer is expected to benefit from a mood of anti-incumbency.

What should Sunak prioritise? First, combating inflationary headwinds by focusing on fiscal responsibility would be vital. Second, targeted investment in infrastructure and education should be prioritised. But these should not spawn open-ended costs. Further, a competitive British tax regime to boost entrepreneurship and a fit-for-purpose approach to immigration would be core as well.

Alliances with like-minded democracies such as India will need to be cemented too. Sunak’s rapport with his Indian counterpart during the G20 summit was encouraging. Rebuilding relationships with European allies should also be factored in.

Sunak will also need to be receptive to voter concern that cuts across the “red wall” Northern seats traditionally held by Labour and the marginals across the South. The recent headline-grabbing delay on the ban of new diesel and petrol vehicles from 2030 to 2035 is to be viewed in this context. Sunak has calculated that he’d rather be viewed as pragmatic than ideologically fixated. It remains to be seen if other pivots lie ahead in the coming months.

Truss was correct in recognising that Britain suffered from low growth and needed to create greater incentives for investment. But she did not confront the hard truth that lower taxes and increased spending are incompatible. Managing this tension will not be easy for Sunak either.
Voters have signalled that while they value competence, they also need a hopeful vision for the future. In this narrative, a focus on stability and a push for growth are not mutually exclusive. Sunak needs to boldly articulate this truth. It also remains to be seen if the Tory party is prepared to rally behind him when the going gets tough. If the party falls back on old-fashioned feuding, it may ultimately find itself reflecting on the opposition benches.

The writer is a London-based lawyer and political commentator