Opinion Together apart

Caste is the major currency of Bihar’s politics and the partners in the JD(U)-BJP alliance draw their strength from diametrically opposite ends of the social spectrum. In fact,the JD(U)-BJP combine has been termed an alliance of opposites. Nitish has carefully cultivated the most backward sections of the caste pyramid,which till his chief ministership had been largely kept out of the state’s power structure. Nitish’s strategy of focusing on the EBCs (extremely backward OBCs) and mahadalits (the most deprived sections of the Scheduled Castes) was not just to end social inequalities but also to counter his arch-rival,Lalu Prasad. Bihar’s former chief minister had for years emerged victorious on the back of a formidable Yadav-Muslim votebank. By empowering the EBCs and the mahadalits,even instituting quotas for them at the panchayat level,Nitish has upset not just Lalu’s constituency but also the upper castes,Bhumihars and Thakurs,who in the last election had voted for the NDA.

There is bound to be a conflict of interest between supporters of Nitish and the BJP. A government commission even suggested a radical land reform,bestowing rights on the land to the tillers of the soil rather than to the original legal owners. Nitish hastily put the commission’s proposal,known as the “batwara bill”,into cold storage when he saw the outrage it evoked among the landed classes. But for the Bhumihars and Thakurs,the “batwara bill” remains a threat. As a consequence,Nitish has alienated not only the BJP’s voters — the BJP is of relatively minor consequence in Bihar — but also eroded his own upper caste support. Two prominent JD(U) members,Rajiv Ranjan Singh (Lallan Babu) and Prabhunath Singh,quit the JD(U) because of Nitish’s slant towards EBCs and mahadalits.

Lalu,meanwhile,is trying to reclaim his Muslim support base. Muslims constitute 16 per cent of the population and Lalu has been citing Nitish’s alliance with the BJP to question his secular credentials. The photograph of Nitish and Modi joining hands at the Ludhiana election rally of 2009 has become a powerful propaganda tool for Lalu. Which is why the short-tempered Nitish lost his cool with the BJP and made every effort to distance himself from Modi,even suggesting that the money from Gujarat for Kosi flood victims could be returned.

It is not just Nitish’s Muslim backers who need reassurance,but also the BJP’s followers. Over the last four-and-a-half years,they have felt neglected and accuse the BJP of forsaking their interests. A common grouse is that Nitish ignores MLAs and MLCs and runs the state as his fiefdom with the help of powerful bureaucrats. Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi,an OBC,is not exactly popular with his own party for playing second fiddle to the chief minister. He has survived only because of support from the BJP’s central leadership. The BJP fears that its potential voters could switch to a somewhat rejuvenated Congress because of their dislike of Nitish. The only thing that could hold the upper caste voters back is the prospect of Lalu’s return as chief minister.

Lalu’s record as an administrator was dismal,but he blames his poor governance on a shortage of funds,accusing the Central government of step-motherly treatment. In the caste cauldron of Bihar,Nitish’s excellent performance as chief minister,showing visible improvement in law and order and several other spheres,appears not to be the overriding concern for voters.

Apart from the spat between the BJP and Nitish,there was another significant development at the BJP’s national executive. Narendra Modi practically hijacked the Patna meet. Modi is clearly positioning himself as the BJP’s prospective prime ministerial candidate. A carefully calculated strategy has been put in place to project Modi. The mild-mannered BJP president,Nitin Gadkari,was a bemused observer to the unfolding drama. Although the advertisement which offended Nitish was ostensibly brought out by a group of Gujarati businessmen based in Bihar,it was okayed by Modi,and the concept and copywriting were done in Gujarat. To be acceptable at the all-India level,Modi knows he has to somehow overcome the stigma of being an untouchable for potential allies. To which end,he has launched a media campaign citing statistics from the Sachar Committee report to establish that his government has a far better record of looking after minority welfare than most other state governments. This,however,is not going to cut much ice among Muslim voters who have not forgiven him for the post-Godhra violence in Gujarat. Nitish’s infuriated reaction at being linked with Modi indicates that the Gujarat chief minister will find it difficult to live down his past.

coomi.kapoor@expressindia.com